The extended decline in GBP/JPY last week suggests that the recovery from 210.43 may have already peaked at 215.59. For the coming week, the initial bias remains mildly bearish, with the first key support level situated at 211.23. A decisive break below this point would likely open the path toward 210.43. Conversely, a move above the minor resistance at 214.04 would shift the intraday bias back to neutral.
Looking at the broader perspective, there are currently no clear signals of a full trend reversal. If the long-term uptrend resumes, the pair could extend toward 220.90, based on the 61.8% projection of the move from the 2022 low (148.93) to the 2024 high (208.09) from 184.35. However, a sustained break below the 55-week EMA (currently at 207.11) would indicate a shift into a medium-term downtrend, targeting support at 184.35.
In the very long term, the uptrend stemming from the 2011 low of 116.83 remains intact. The next major target is the 2007 high of 251.09. This remains the primary bullish scenario as long as the 55-month EMA (now at 186.82) continues to hold as support.
