Ankara Leads NATO Summit, Securing Key Defense Agreements

The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara will highlight Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s growing influence within the alliance, as he seeks to overcome resistance to key arms deals and showcase the rapid expansion of Turkey’s defence industry.

With NATO’s second‑largest army and borders adjacent to flashpoints ranging from Ukraine to the Middle East, Turkey stands at the core of the alliance’s future amid uncertainty about U.S. commitment to European defence.

“It represents a paradigm shift,” says International Relations Professor Huseyin Bagci of Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

With European and North American leaders attending the summit on 7 and 8 July, Bagci predicts Erdogan will leverage the occasion to cement Turkey’s pivotal role.

“The NATO summit provides Erdogan with a platform to demonstrate, both domestically and internationally, that Turkey is a medium‑power leader with whom the world must engage,” he adds.

Defence deals

Major arms deals are expected to dominate the summit’s coverage. U.S. President Donald Trump, attending in part out of respect for Erdogan, is not expected to arrive empty‑handed.

“The administration is eager to deliver something to Erdogan,” says Aaron Stein, President of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a U.S.-based think tank.

Trump and Erdogan are expected to sign a $700 million agreement to sell approximately 80 GE F‑110 fighter‑jet engines, a major breakthrough for Ankara’s ambitious Fifth‑Generation fighter program.

“The Kaan fighter jet, Turkey’s domestically developed aircraft, relies on the F‑110 engine in its initial version, making these engines crucial for the program,” Stein explained.

Ankara is investing billions of euros into the Kaan jet, yet critics have derisively called it the world’s most expensive glider without sufficient engines. Congressional hurdles, driven by influential Israeli and Greek lobbies, have stalled the engine deal, though Trump has pledged to use executive authority to advance it.

“Turkey has become a domestic political football in the United States,” Stein remarks. “The administration aims to advance these agreements and is prepared to employ leverage to achieve that.”

Ankara is also seeking a breakthrough at the NATO summit to secure the French‑Italian SAMP‑T air‑defence system, previously blocked by Paris, though French media suggests an agreement may be near.

“That could open a new chapter in European‑Turkish relations,” says International Relations expert Zaur Gasimov of Istanbul’s Turkish German University.

“It would bring key NATO members – France and Italy – closer to Turkey and could help forge a new core group within the alliance,” Gasimov adds.

Exclusion from SAFE

Ankara will use the summit to spotlight its booming defence industry, showcasing cutting‑edge weaponry and highly coveted drones that have seen action in conflicts from Ukraine to Africa.

“Turkey has a highly developed drone sector, which is of paramount importance in modern warfare,” Gasimov explains. “These capabilities make Turkey an exceptionally valuable member of NATO from the perspective of European leaders.”

However, Turkish arms sales to Europe face a major hurdle: exclusion from the EU’s €150 billion Safety and Assistance for Europe (SAFE) procurement programme. Greece and Cyprus continue to block Turkey’s participation in SAFE over unresolved Mediterranean and Aegean disputes.

Bagci predicts Erdogan will use his meeting with European leaders to attempt to resolve this deadlock.

“SAFE is a grand strategic decision of the European Union, and it cannot be blocked by a small country such as the Republic of Cyprus or Greece,” he says. “The Greeks and the southern Republic of Cyprus must either cease obstruction or refrain from preventing Turkey’s participation in SAFE.”

Turkey is the only state that recognises the Turkish Cypriot administration in Northern Cyprus, refusing to acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus as the sole sovereign authority of the island under international law.

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