December arabica coffee (KCZ26) fell 2.50 cents, or 0.86%, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) rose 56, or 1.61%.
The coffee market was mixed, with arabica dropping to a seven-week low and robusta advancing to a one-week high. The end of Brazil’s harvest has increased arabica availability and pressured prices. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported on Tuesday that August coffee exports rose 44.6% from a year earlier to 206,618 MMT, the highest level in eight months.
Above-normal rainfall in Brazil could also support flowering for next year’s crop, adding to bearish pressure. Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that Brazil’s Minas Gerais state, the country’s primary arabica-growing region, received 8.9 millimeters of rain during the week ended August 30, equivalent to 127% of the historical average.
Robusta prices found support from concerns that heavy rain in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the nation’s largest coffee-producing area, could flood farms and damage crops.
Robusta had fallen to a three-month low last Thursday amid indications of larger supplies from Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported Wednesday that coffee exports during January–August 2026 increased 13.7% year over year to 1.33 MMT. Exports in 2025 rose 17.5% to 1.58 MMT. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to climb 6% year over year to a four-year high of 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags.
ICE arabica inventories declined to a 27-year low of 218,838 bags on Tuesday, providing support for arabica prices. Robusta faced the opposite pressure as ICE inventories rose to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots last Wednesday.
El Niño-related risks to Brazil’s crop remain bullish for coffee prices. Trader Commercial said the weather pattern could delay rainfall during September and October, when coffee trees normally flower, potentially harming Brazil’s 2026/27 crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño pattern that developed across the equatorial Pacific the previous month was likely to become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. The pattern could bring floods, droughts and temperature swings that disrupt coffee production across Asia and South America.
The latest biannual forecast from the US Department of Agriculture was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA projected that global coffee output in 2026/27 would rise by 10.8 million bags, or 6%, to a record 189.7 million bags, primarily because of improved growing conditions in Brazil. Global arabica production is expected to increase 12% year over year, while robusta output is forecast to decline 0.7%. World ending stocks are projected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast on June 3 that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop would reach a record 71.9 million bags, 14% above the previous year.
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