Arabica Coffee Rises on Supply Concerns as Robusta Declines

September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up +4.10 (+1.14%) on Thursday, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) settled down -16 (-0.43%).

Coffee prices ended the session mixed on Thursday. Arabica coffee managed to close higher, consolidating gains below Wednesday’s 6.5-month high, whereas robusta prices faced pressure from rising inventories. ICE robusta coffee inventories climbed to a 5.25-month high of 4,622 lots on Tuesday, weighing on the commodity.

Arabica gains were tempered by accelerating harvest progress in Brazil, facilitated by drier weather conditions. According to Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op, the national harvest stood at 81.1% complete as of August 14, a 7 percentage-point increase from the previous week, though still trailing last year’s pace of 86.1%.

Below-normal rainfall in Brazil’s key growing regions continues to accelerate the harvest pace, acting as a bearish factor for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that only 0.6 mm of rain—just 11% of the historical average—fell in Minas Gerais, the country’s primary arabica-growing region, during the week ending August 16.

Despite the recent acceleration, tight supply constraints remain. On Wednesday, arabica prices surged to a 6.5-month high as harvest progress lagged behind historical averages. Safras & Mercado data showed the 2026/27 Brazil coffee harvest was 90% complete as of August 12, well behind last year’s 97% and the five-year average of 94%. Specifically, Brazil’s arabica harvest was 86% complete, compared to 95% at the same point last year.

Tightening inventories provide further support for arabica prices. ICE arabica coffee stocks fell to a 2.75-year low of 229,214 bags on Tuesday. In contrast, rising inventories continue to pressure robusta prices, with ICE robusta stocks reaching a 5.25-month high of 4,622 lots.

Arabica prices also received support from last Monday’s devastating 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer. The quake impacted key coffee-growing provinces, including Caldas and Risaralda, which collectively account for roughly a quarter of the nation’s output.

Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports via the Buenaventura port, which manages the majority of the country’s coffee shipments, according to a Bloomberg report citing Asoexport, Colombia’s coffee exporters association. However, port traffic remains intermittent and severely limited. Exporters noted that the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling infrastructure.

Looking ahead, concerns over an El Niño weather pattern remain a key bullish driver for coffee prices. Traders have warned that the phenomenon could delay critical rains in Brazil during September and October, potentially disrupting the flowering stage of the 2026/27 crop. The US Climate Prediction Center previously stated that the El Niño emerging in the equatorial Pacific is likely to be one of the strongest on record in over 75 years, setting the stage for extreme weather disruptions across Asia and South America.

On the robusta front, soaring exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are exerting downward pressure on prices. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports for the first seven months of 2026 rose by 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons. Full-year 2025 exports had previously jumped by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.

The latest USDA biannual forecast added further bearish pressure on coffee prices. The agency forecast that global coffee output for the 2026-27 season will rise by 6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, driven largely by favorable growing conditions in Brazil. While global arabica production is expected to rise by 12% year-on-year, robusta output is projected to decline by 0.7%. World ending stocks are anticipated to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Separately, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, representing a 14% year-on-year increase.

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