The AUD/USD pair traded in a narrow range near 0.7030 on Thursday, with the Australian Dollar struggling to build on recent gains as the US Dollar remained supported by the latest labor market data.
US Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 4,000 to 226,000 in the week ending June 13, close to market expectations of 225,000. The figures indicated that layoffs remain contained, pointing to continued labor market resilience even as hiring momentum shows signs of cooling.
Continuing Jobless Claims edged higher to 1.81 million, slightly above consensus estimates.
The data helped the Greenback maintain its firm tone as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy outlook following its latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
After his first meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh indicated that policymakers still need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target before considering a shift toward easier monetary policy.
The Australian Dollar also found support from improved risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump and Iran’s leader signed a deal on Wednesday aimed at ending the Middle East war. Under the agreement, Tehran committed to diluting its enriched uranium in exchange for broad economic relief. The deal also raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor, easing concerns over a deeper energy shock.
Short-Term Technical Outlook:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7031, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as the pair remains below both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.7054 and 0.7092, respectively. The pair is testing a horizontal pivot near 0.7031 after failing to sustain recovery attempts, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 46 points to limited downside momentum rather than an oversold setup, leaving AUD/USD exposed to further pressure while it stays beneath nearby resistance.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7041, followed by the 20-period SMA at 0.7054 and a horizontal barrier near 0.7060, with the 100-period SMA around 0.7092 acting as a more significant cap. On the downside, the immediate pivot at 0.7031 remains the first level to watch, and a decisive break below it could open the way toward the next horizontal support around 0.7018, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair.