Boeing (BA) shares declined again this week, closing at $198.20 on Friday, September 18, down 4.83% over the past five trading sessions and 12.98% year to date.
The slide followed comments from Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference on September 16, where he disclosed new hurdles on the 737 and 787 production ramps and pushed 777X certification testing further into 2027.
Boeing is already under pressure to demonstrate the feasibility of its turnaround, and the CEO’s remarks heightened investor caution. However, at least one major bank views the pullback as an opportunity to acquire shares of the aircraft manufacturer at a discount.
Boeing Shares Slide After CEO Flags 737 and 777X Delays
Ortberg told conference attendees that the 737 production line has yet to stabilize at the targeted rate of 47 jets per month. The delay stems from internal wing production, though Boeing noted the broader supply chain remains stable.
On a positive note, Ortberg indicated the 737 MAX 10 variant should receive certification “very soon,” telling analysts, “When I left Seattle yesterday, I think we had three deliverables to complete.”
Ortberg also confirmed that certification testing for the 777X, Boeing’s long-delayed widebody, would extend into 2027. The program is roughly seven years behind its original schedule, with its ETOPS certification stalled by an engine seal issue on the GE Aerospace-built GE9X turbine.
GE Aerospace (GE) responded that certification can proceed with the existing seals and stated that upgraded parts began shipping in August. Since Boeing designs and builds commercial jets, defense aircraft, and space systems, any disruption in the production ramp impacts revenue and delivery schedules airlines are counting on.
Ronald Epstein Calls Market Reaction Overdone
Bank of America aerospace analyst Ronald Epstein used the selloff to reiterate his Buy rating and $270 price target. A veteran covering aerospace and defense for over a decade, Epstein holds a five-star rating from TipRanks, lending significant weight to his view among institutional investors.
In a Bank of America Global Research report, Epstein wrote that Ortberg’s comments triggered an approximately 7% intraday drop in BA shares, characterizing the market reaction as “a bit dramatic.” He argued that setbacks were anticipated from the outset.
“We wouldn’t expect Boeing’s turnaround effort to follow a linear path; there will be setbacks on the way up,” Epstein wrote. “Boeing operates in a complex, highly regulated industry and its execution was seriously compromised, so it will naturally take time, but the turnaround is broadly progressing in the right direction.” Epstein’s target implies roughly a 36% increase from the September 18 close.
Why the SPEEA Labor Deal Matters More Than Production Noise
Epstein highlighted a factor many traders may have overlooked: the near-term risk posed by the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA), whose current contract expires on October 6.
SPEEA represents approximately 17,000 engineers responsible for certification safety analysis and paperwork—their approval is essential for moving planes through the pipeline. While Boeing and SPEEA reached a tentative four-year agreement earlier in September, members must still vote to ratify it; a rejection could trigger a strike.
“We believe the real near-term risk for Boeing lies in a potential SPEEA strike, with the current contract expiring on October 6,” Epstein wrote in the Bank of America report. Despite this, he remains comfortable with BofA’s 2026 free cash flow forecast of $2.4 billion for Boeing. The 737 MAX 10 accounts for about 30% of Boeing’s 737 backlog, making its certification critical for future cash generation.
What Boeing Investors Should Weigh Next
Ortberg’s comments added to recent speculation surrounding Boeing, though the underlying trajectory of the recovery remains unchanged. Boeing has been delivering more jets in 2026 than at any point since 2018, and that pace has not wavered.
Boeing’s order book exceeded $695 billion earlier this year, bolstered by new 737 MAX commitments from carriers including Turkish Airlines and Flydubai. That backlog translates to cash flow only if Boeing can build and certify aircraft on schedule.
That is where the risk resides. If SPEEA members reject the tentative agreement, or if 777X testing faces further delays, cash flow forecasts will likely need revision. Conversely, 737 MAX 10 certification and an approved SPEEA contract could shift sentiment positively.
Boeing’s track record over the past five years illustrates how easily timelines can shift, so investors betting on the turnaround should remain vigilant. Those considering Epstein’s recommendation may wish to scale in gradually, providing a cushion against potential timeline delays or certification issues.
