Beyond the Blockade: Why Technical Oil Disruptions May Outlast the Hormuz Crisis

While global attention remains focused on the movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a petroleum geologist warns that a more critical energy crisis is unfolding thousands of feet underground—one that could persist long after political agreements end the conflict.

Art Berman, an energy consultant and petroleum geologist with over 40 years of experience, told Fox News Digital that millions of barrels of Persian Gulf oil production remain “shut in.” He cautioned that restoring these wells is a far more complex undertaking than simply reopening a strategic shipping lane.

“This is potentially a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues,” Berman stated. “The more important long-term story is that 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf production is currently shut in, and global production is down roughly 10 million barrels a day.”

In an aerial view, Marathon Petroleum Corp’s Los Angeles Refinery, one of the largest oil refineries in North America, operates as gas prices rocket upward due to worldwide oil supply disruptions caused by the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, on March 10, 2026 in Carson, California. (David McNew/Getty Images)

“We can obsess over whether 4 million or 9 million barrels are getting through the strait,” Berman added. “But eventually, those tankers have to be filled with oil.”

A White House official, speaking on background, noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains open with a U.S. naval blockade in effect, pointing to a sharp decline in oil prices following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

Berman’s estimates align closely with data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its August 12, 2026, report, the IEA noted that while Gulf production rose to 23.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in July, it remained 8.3 mb/d below pre-war levels. The agency further reported that global oil supply was 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) lower than the previous year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provided a slightly different estimate, placing July production shut-ins at an average of 5.5 million bpd. The EIA warned that ongoing constraints in Hormuz forced an increase in shut-in forecasts for August. While the agency expects trade patterns to normalize by early 2027, it cautioned that some Gulf producers may never return to their previous output levels.

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on Aug. 3, 2026. (Reuters)

The Technical Challenge of ‘Upstream’ Recovery

The core of the issue lies in the difference between “midstream” logistics—the transport of oil—and “upstream” production. Berman argues that the physical act of producing the oil is the more enduring problem.

“The very last thing in the world I ever want to do is to shut in a well,” Berman explained. He noted that restarting a well requires restoring the delicate communication between surface equipment and reservoirs deep underground. Extended shutdowns can cause reservoir complications that are not easily fixed.

“This is not like flipping a light switch,” Berman said. “It is a complicated, high-risk, long-term process with an uncertain outcome.”

Berman estimates that while 80% of affected wells might return to previous levels over several weeks or months, the remaining 20% may require extensive engineering or may never recover their original flow rates.

Other analysts acknowledge these technical hurdles, though some are more optimistic. Wood Mackenzie projects that affected fields could recover 70% of production within three months and 90% within six, provided the restart is controlled. However, they concede that the final 1 million bpd could take significantly longer to recover.

Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Berman also warned that a ceasefire would not immediately restore energy flows. Shipowners, insurers, and crews must first feel confident in the safety of the waterway, meaning logistical and security delays will likely persist after political agreements are signed.

A Fundamental Economic Shock

Berman views the Persian Gulf conflict as a fundamental shock to the global economic system, comparing the scale of the disruption to the COVID-19 pandemic. He argues that the consequences will be felt long after the immediate crisis fades.

The ConocoPhillips Oil Refinery is seen in Wilmington, California on April 11, 2026. (Etienne Laurent / AFP via Getty Images)

Despite the United States being the world’s top oil producer, Berman asserts that American consumers are not insulated. Because the oil and refined products markets are global, U.S. refineries rely on specific grades of foreign crude to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

“The problem for the U.S. isn’t a lack of oil—we almost have enough,” Berman said. “It’s that the oil we have isn’t the right kind for everything our refineries need to produce.”

The EIA reported on July 15 that Hormuz disruptions had already pushed international buyers toward alternative sources, which increased U.S. refinery margins and exports. However, whether this represents a permanent shift or a temporary spike depends on the technical recovery of Gulf wells.

The White House has dismissed concerns regarding long-term U.S. energy security, citing record domestic production. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital that under President Trump, the U.S. has become the world’s leading producer and exporter of oil and gas, strengthening national security.

“The Iranian regime’s terrorist actions in the Strait of Hormuz have proven that our allies need to invest in reliable, affordable, and secure energy sources and advance new partnerships with the United States,” Rogers added.

Children swim as ships are seen anchored in the Strait of Hormuz on August 10, 2026 off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran. ( )

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