Bitcoin holds near $63,500 as investors await Fed’s next policy cues

Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk that bitcoin’s price swings are most pronounced when inflation data forces a reassessment of interest‑rate expectations. Historically, the cryptocurrency has gained an average of 3.25% on three occasions in the past nine releases when inflation came in below forecasts. A surprise downside print on July 14 sparked a 4.24% rally, he noted. “An in‑line report can remove a tail risk. It takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst,” Selby said. He added that the Federal Reserve may hold off on policy changes, pointing to modest shelter‑cost growth of 0.1%, declines in energy (‑1.5%) and gasoline (‑2.9%), and the fading impact of last year’s tariff‑driven price increases.

The next key events for markets include the Jackson Hole symposium later this month, the September 4 jobs report, and the September 11 inflation release.

Equities responded positively. MSCI’s Asia Pacific index rose close to 1%, led by gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while Korea’s Kospi climbed nearly 4%, entering a technical bull market with a 22% rise over ten days.

Sentiment was mixed elsewhere, with Cisco dropping more than 4% after hours following weaker‑than‑expected earnings and Cerebras Systems falling 17% due to declining hardware sales.

Brent crude halted a six‑day winning streak, retreating after reaching around $90 a barrel. The decline followed remarks from an Iranian Revolutionary Guard adviser, General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, who said Iran was preparing to conduct operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine.

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