The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a critical cloture vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday, September 15. The vote will serve as a pivotal test of whether Republican lawmakers can secure the 60 votes required to advance the cryptocurrency market structure bill.
Prediction markets have shown a modest increase in optimism leading up to the vote. Polymarket currently prices the probability of the CLARITY Act passing into law in 2026 at 30%, while Kalshi estimates the likelihood at 37% as of September 14. Despite this upward movement, both probabilities remain significantly lower than the peaks recorded in February.
With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, the party requires a minimum of seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold to overcome a filibuster, assuming full GOP support. Any Republican defections would raise the number of Democratic votes needed.
Polymarket and Kalshi Odds
According to Polymarket’s “CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026” contract, the market assigns a 30% chance of the legislation being enacted by the end of 2026. This contract has accumulated $16.2 million in cumulative trading volume. The current probability marks an increase from roughly 12% in early September, yet it remains far below the 82% peak seen in February, prior to the intensification of ethics disputes surrounding former President Trump’s crypto disclosures.
Kalshi’s corresponding contract, which resolves on whether crypto market structure legislation becomes law by January 1, 2027, showed a similar 37% reading as of September 14. This figure is also down sharply from 90% in February, though it represents more than double the 14.1% probability recorded in early September.
As reported on Monday, former President Trump agreed to approximately 80% of the key ethics provisions within the CLARITY Act. These concessions include stricter limitations on officials’ cryptocurrency holdings and expanded enforcement powers for state attorneys general.
These adjustments are designed to facilitate the path toward securing the 60 votes necessary to move the bill forward. Ethics provisions have historically been a primary obstacle in the Senate. While the Republican draft has made substantial concessions—including those related to Trump-associated ethics—Democrats must still evaluate whether the revisions are adequate.
In a joint statement, seven Democratic senators indicated that earlier versions of the bill “fell short” regarding ethics, consumer protection, and illicit-finance safeguards.
Why 60 Votes Matter
The cloture vote is not a direct decision on the passage of the CLARITY Act. Rather, it determines whether the Senate possesses sufficient support to advance the bill and initiate formal debate.
Republicans control 53 Senate seats, making the party reliant on Democratic backing to achieve the 60 votes needed to bypass a filibuster. Any Republican defections would increase the number of Democratic votes required.
