The EUR/GBP pair has retreated from 0.8607 and is trading lower today, though it remains above support at 0.8454. Near-term bias stays neutral. Resistance around 0.8610 is expected to cap the corrective rebound from 0.8453. A break below 0.8545 would restore a bearish bias and open the way for a retest of the 0.8453 low. Conversely, a sustained move above 0.8610 would weaken the bearish outlook and support a stronger rally toward falling channel resistance, currently near 0.8635.
In the broader trend, the rise from 0.8221, the 2024 low, appears to have finished at 0.8863, close to the 38.2% retracement level of 0.8867 calculated from the 0.9267 2025 high down to 0.8221. A renewed decline toward 0.8221 would remain possible. The outlook is neutral as long as 0.8610, formerly support and now resistance, holds. A sustained break above 0.8610 would suggest that the decline from 0.8863 has ended as a correction rather than a reversal.
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