Bitcoin Shows Early Bottom Signals as Digital Gold Narrative Resurfaces

Bitcoin is flashing two notable signals this week: on-chain data hints at a macro bottom forming, while its price action increasingly mirrors gold’s safe‑haven role.

That assessment comes from two reports by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, whose analysts note the early stages of a bottoming process for the largest and oldest cryptocurrency.

Recently, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $63,362, showing little change over 24 hours. Over the past week it slipped nearly 2%, and since its October peak of $126,080 it has lost about half its value.

“At each major cycle bottom, long‑term holders carried deeper unrealized losses than the broader market, meaning the cohort usually associated with the strongest conviction and lowest volatility sensitivity is now under more stress than the market as a whole,” wrote analyst MorenoDV.

“The current structure matches that pattern,” he added.

The signal derives from adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data for long‑term holders (LTH)—the investors typically viewed as the market’s most resilient cohort.

Currently, LTH aNUPL has slipped into negative territory and sits below the broader market average, indicating that even long‑term holders are now bearing losses greater than the market overall. Historically, this exact pattern—long‑term holders hurting more than the average—has appeared at every major cycle bottom.

The setup aligns with Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its cycle high, reinforcing the view that this is more than a routine correction.

Analysts caution against declaring a bottom just yet. In prior cycles, LTH aNUPL fell into much deeper, more prolonged negative territory before a true low emerged—a level of losses some describe as “depression territory.” Today’s readings have not reached that extreme.

The report adds that Bitcoin may need one more capitulation leg to push long‑term holder losses to historical extremes. Alternatively, stronger institutional demand and a more structurally resilient holder base could allow the market to bottom with comparatively less damage than in past cycles.

Bitcoin’s 90‑day correlation with gold has swung from nearly –0.9 in early 2026 to around +0.7, according to data highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who described the shift as a return to “digital‑gold‑era levels.”

The shift suggests investors are once again pricing Bitcoin as a scarce, non‑sovereign asset—one that can hedge against currency debasement, fiscal stress, and geopolitical uncertainty, much like gold.

Investors have long touted Bitcoin as “digital gold”—a long‑term store of value akin to the precious metal—and at times the two assets have moved together.

However, Bitcoin’s behavior remains split: a month‑to‑date comparison shows it sometimes trading in step with the Nasdaq, behaving like a liquidity‑sensitive risk asset, while at other times tracking gold’s moves as a scarcity play.

Its volatility, though, continues to far exceed that of gold.

Analysts also urge caution in reading too much into the correlation shift; a positive correlation is not inherently bullish—the two assets can just as easily fall together as rise together.

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