Bitcoin Slides to $83,300 as Bond Yields Surge to 2007 Highs, Dragging Crypto Market Down

Bitcoin has surrendered its early Thursday recovery gains, currently trading at $83,344—a decline of 1.23% since midnight UTC. This downward momentum continues to be driven by a persistent bond selloff that propelled the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007, exerting downward pressure on cryptocurrencies for the second consecutive day.

The broader market downturn has pulled almost all major assets down, with ether falling 1.55% and XRP shedding 2.87%. Solana (SOL) traded at $113.14, down 1.61%. Although smaller tokens attempted a modest recovery during the European morning session, they are now experiencing the steepest losses, with NEAR and HYPE dropping by 3.32% and 3.94% respectively.

Concurrently, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.13% to reach 101.24, marking its highest level since July. Gold prices declined by 0.71% to $4,257, while U.S. equity futures resumed their downward trend. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 index tumbled by more than 1%.

Derivatives Positioning

• Taker flow stays bearish for a second day: Short positions accounted for over 52% of the 24-hour taker volume, which surged by 10% to $250 billion, even as open interest (OI) declined by nearly 6% to $149 billion. The combination of rising volume, falling OI, and short-heavy flow suggests that existing positions are being closed out rather than new short positions being established.
• BTC OI falls faster than price: Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) dropped by 6% compared to a 3% decline in price over the past 24 hours. Because OI is measured in notional terms, a decline that outpaces the price drop indicates that actual contracts are being closed, rather than simply the dollar value of static positions decreasing. This is consistent with genuine long unwinding rather than fresh short accumulation.
• Binance whales aren’t buying the bearish story: Despite the otherwise weak positioning in the market, the whale long/short account ratio on Binance—the leading exchange by volume—has climbed back above 1 to stand at 1.30. Meanwhile, the whale position ratio has remained below 2 for the second consecutive day. This suggests that large accounts are either staying on the sidelines or actively trading against the broader selling trend, a divergence that warrants close attention.
• XRP mirrors BTC; ETH and SOL don’t: XRP’s notional OI is declining faster than its price, mirroring the pattern seen in bitcoin and indicating actual position closures. In contrast, the OI decline for ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) closely matches their respective price drops, which appears to reflect existing positions simply losing dollar value as prices fall, rather than active deleveraging.
• CVD confirms the sell pressure, alts wear it worse: The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) is negative across major assets, including bitcoin and ether, indicating that aggressive selling has significantly outpaced aggressive buying. XRP, SUI, and AVAX exhibit the most negative readings, highlighting them as the primary targets where selling pressure is most heavily concentrated.
• Litecoin is the exception, and the data backs a real move: LTC has risen by nearly 8% over the past 24 hours, with its futures OI—measured directly in tokens—increasing to 8.96 million, the highest level since January 18 and extending a continuous rising streak since September 19. A rising price accompanied by increasing OI in coin terms provides a more robust signal than the notional metrics above, pointing to a genuine buildup of fresh long positions rather than short covering.
• Implied vol stays calm despite the selloff: The 30-day implied volatility indices for BTC and ETH remain within their recent ranges, with short-term implied volatility (IV) still appearing cheap relative to realized volatility in both cases. Options traders are not pricing in panic, even as spot prices weaken.
• Options skew turns defensive: BTC’s one-week options skew has flipped positive, indicating renewed demand for downside protection. ETH is exhibiting a similar shift. Both trends align with the broader market weakness rather than contradicting it.
• Big expiry looms Friday: Over $17 billion in BTC and ETH options are set to expire on Deribit this Friday, with the majority of positions currently in the money. The key uncertainty is whether traders will roll these positions into later expiries or allow them to settle; either scenario could amplify volatility heading into the weekend.

Token Talk

• Litecoin maintained its upward momentum throughout the market selloff, rising 8.1% since midnight UTC and 6.2% over the trailing 24-hour period. This strength emerges as traders position themselves ahead of the upcoming July block reward halving, with historical bottoms typically occurring six to twelve months prior to the event.
• Ethereum Classic (ETC) gained 7.6% on the day to reach $9.42, while the morpho lending protocol token climbed by 4.1% to $2.67.
• The selling pressure is heavily concentrated in tokens that experienced the strongest rallies earlier in the week. The AI inference token Venice fell 5.2% since midnight and 9.6% over the past 24 hours to $28.71. The perpetuals exchange token Lighter (LIT) dropped 4.2% and 2.1% to $5.09, while pump.fun declined by 4.1% on the day and 11% over the trailing week.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) fell 3.9% to $90.39, and NEAR dropped 3.1% to $4.20. Despite being one of the strongest performers over the past week, the AI-focused token is now down 8.7% over the trailing 24 hours.
• XRP (XRP) and Bitcoin Cash were the weakest among the major assets, each declining 2.7% since midnight to $1.46 and $328.56 respectively. XRP fell 8.3% over the 24-hour period, while Bitcoin Cash dropped 6.8%, giving back gains from Wednesday’s CME futures announcement.

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