Bitcoin’s improving spot-demand signal is losing ground to a sharper deterioration in perpetual futures. With the price near $73,000, that split leaves its attempted recovery vulnerable ahead of Friday’s US producer-inflation release.
Bitcoin traded around $73,478 at about 10:40 UTC on November 12. A Coinbase quote one minute earlier was about $73,469.
In a November 11 CryptoQuant note, analyst RugaResearch placed the combined 30‑day estimate of spot‑and‑perpetual demand at negative 348,000 BTC on November 10, its weakest reading for the month.
From November 7 to November 10, the spot proxy rose by roughly 29,500 BTC, while the perpetual‑futures estimate fell by about 63,500 BTC. Both components remained below zero, so the improvement did not translate into a positive reading.
Perpetual deterioration was more than twice the spot improvement; both component levels remained negative.
Analyst proxy, not executed purchases or capital flows. Both component levels remained negative. Exact formula, venue coverage and absolute component levels are not disclosed. Each rolling reading adds a day and drops the oldest.
Demand signals still need confirmation
This is an analyst’s proxy, not a purchase count. Its public description omits the formula, exchange coverage and absolute component levels.
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Each reading adds a day and drops the oldest. That rolling window makes persistence across several closes more informative than one improvement.
This breakdown also differs from the apparent-demand measure discussed in CryptoSlate’s November 11 coverage. That article’s negative 284,000-BTC reading cannot be compared with negative 348,000 BTC as though one followed the other in a single series.
RugaResearch said spot moving toward zero, easing futures weakness and a flattening total while price holds its lows would strengthen the range case.
Friday tests the macro backdrop
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the October Producer Price Index (PPI) for Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (13:30 UTC).
Inflation remains a key variable for financing conditions. In his November 10 speech before the consumer‑inflation release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that inflation was still too high and was leaning toward a quarter‑point hike in December, though he stressed this was a conditional view rather than a firm commitment by the Federal Open Market Committee.
A PPI report that reinforces tighter policy could keep financing conditions restrictive and weigh on risk appetite, while a softer reading would ease that pressure. Friday’s initial price reaction will test the persistence of the recovery; a new spot weakness or accelerating futures drag could undermine stabilization even if Bitcoin briefly rebounds after the release. Smaller ETF outflows and continued exchange withdrawals add context but do not replace the component readings.
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