Bitget Analyst Highlights Bitcoin’s Resilience Amid Geopolitical Risks

• Bitget Chief Analyst Ryan Lee emphasized Bitcoin’s resilience amid renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions.
• He cautioned that oil price risk premiums will persist, exacerbating market pressures as inflation and Federal Reserve rate uncertainties remain.
• Positive momentum from AI advancements, real-world asset (RWA) adoption, and stablecoin payment integrations is poised to offset some headwinds.

Global markets faced heightened uncertainty early in the week as the US and Iran escalated their conflict, introducing supply chain risks and driving oil prices higher due to embedded risk premiums.

In a Tuesday discussion with Blockzeit, Bitget Research’s Ryan Lee analyzed the situation’s impact on Bitcoin and broader crypto markets, noting key factors influencing short-term dynamics.

Investors Balancing Between Defensive Positioning and Risk

At the time, the US Dollar Index was hovering near 100.7, while Treasury yields held elevated levels. The two-year yield stood at 4.15%, and the 10-year yield was approximately 4.45%, reflecting market caution about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts given lingering inflation risks tied to energy prices.

Gold prices also declined modestly amid the geopolitical environment, suggesting investors are diversifying portfolios between safety assets and riskier exposure.

Bitcoin’s Strong Rebound

Despite geopolitical volatility, Lee described Bitcoin’s rise to the $65,000 range as evidence of “robust upside momentum.” He highlighted that spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown consistent net inflows since July 14, elevated futures open interest, and relatively stable funding rates with controlled liquidations—all indicators of resilient demand.

The analyst argues that this trend suggests institutional interest remains strong, with spot allocations preferred for their lower liquidation risks compared to derivatives.

Key Macro Indicators to Monitor

Though Bitcoin has largely shrugged off the latest US-Iran developments, Lee stressed that macroeconomic factors will continue to shape its price. He specifically flagged oil prices as a critical variable, as rising costs could fuel inflation and delay Fed rate-cut expectations.

Lee also pointed to positive signals in Bitcoin ETF inflows and balanced derivatives markets as proof of sustained institutional demand, which supports broader crypto market stability.

Structural Growth Drivers: AI, RWAs, and Payments

Lee identified artificial intelligence (AI), tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), and stablecoin payment adoption as key long-term catalysts for Bitcoin and crypto ecosystems.

In AI, Moonshot’s planned Hong Kong IPO within six months—targeting a $30 billion valuation post-launch of its Kimi K3 coding model—could redirect capital toward AI-integrated blockchain projects. Lee noted that AI’s growing influence may rekindle interest in related crypto assets.

On payments, Japan’s AZ-Com Maruwa is implementing JPYC stablecoin to pay 2,300 drivers, marking a significant step toward mainstream corporate use. Symbolic of this shift, Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC) recently hit a $20.9B market cap by tokenizing home equity loans, demonstrating real-world RWA applications.

“Markets are currently in a balancing act,” Lee concluded. “Short-term volatility will likely persist due to macro uncertainties like US-Iran tensions and oil prices. However, progress in AI, tokenization, and practical stablecoin use cases is steadily building foundational strength for long-term crypto growth.”

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