Bolsonaro Leads Lula in Brazil’s First‑Round Vote, Signaling Shift in Latin American Politics

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, secured a decisive victory in Brazil’s first‑round presidential election, delivering a stronger‑than‑expected performance and extending a series of right‑wing triumphs across Latin America that have been bolstered by endorsements from former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Although the contest tightened in the final weeks, most pre‑election surveys projected incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a modest single‑digit lead over his challenger.

Bolsonaro now advances to a runoff against President Lula on October 25. With essentially all ballots counted, Bolsonaro led Lula 47.2% to 44.9%, defying expectations of a Lula victory.

Latin America’s Conservative Surge Faces Critical Test in Brazil Election

Brazil’s right‑wing senator and presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) gestures alongside federal deputy and Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial candidate Douglas Ruas during a campaign rally on the eve of the general election, held in the Campo Grande neighborhood of western Rio de Janeiro on October 3, 2026. The nationwide vote took place the following day. (Douglas SHINEIDR / AFP via Getty Images)

Tonight, many are left puzzling over how pollsters missed the dramatic divergence between forecasts and actual results.

The stark polling miss reinforces claims by Brazil’s right‑wing and the Bolsonaro camp that leading pollsters have been biased toward Lula and his Workers’ Party.

Similar polling disadvantages had confronted Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 and 2018 elections, though none matched the magnitude of tonight’s result gap.

Bolsonaro performed exceptionally well in his southern strongholds, capturing the nation’s three largest states by substantial margins:

Flavio Bolsonaro, the Brazilian presidential candidate, stands at center stage during a campaign rally in São João de Meriti, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The gathering underscored a tight contest less than two weeks before the election, according to a new poll that highlighted fresh allegations regarding the candidate’s connections to a jailed banker implicated in a major fraud scheme. (Dado Galdieri/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

In São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous state, Bolsonaro outpaced Lula 52% to 38%.

In Minas Gerais, historically a bellwether state, Bolsonaro led Lula 50% to 43%. In Bolsonaro’s stronghold of Rio de Janeiro, he defeated the incumbent president by 53% to 39%.

Lula’s Political Resilience Highlighted Amid Bolsonaro’s Legal Scrutiny and Alleged Flight Abroad

Lula secured substantial victories in his traditional Northeastern strongholds—including populous Bahia, Pernambuco, and Ceará—but those gains were insufficient to offset Bolsonaro’s formidable performance in Brazil’s southern region.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump dispatched a letter to ex‑Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro urging an swift termination of what Trump termed an ‘unjust’ trial over alleged coup‑related activities. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci and Evaristo Sa/AFP via Getty Images)

Bolsonaro cultivated a close alliance with Donald Trump throughout the campaign, with Trump openly declaring his intention to remove Lula, a long‑standing geopolitical adversary, from power.

The unexpected outcome continues a broader trend of right‑wing electoral successes across Latin America, where a series of conservative candidates have recently taken power in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia.

The vote is likely to trigger intense introspection among Brazil’s left wing, with many questioning whether Lula should have sought office again.

At age 80, having completed three terms and seeking a fourth, Lula was widely regarded as the sole figure capable of unifying Brazil’s fragmented and often divided left.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva addressed the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at UN Headquarters in New York on September 23, 2025. The gathering brought together world leaders under the theme “Better together: 80 years and more for peace, development and human rights.” (Photo by Taylor Hill/Getty Images)

Lula’s trajectory is hailed as one of the most remarkable political comebacks in modern history. After being incarcerated on corruption charges, he secured his release from the Supreme Court and narrowly defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the fiercely contested 2022 election.

Lula famously promised to serve a single term after his 2022 victory but later reversed that commitment. The decision now appears poised to jeopardize his prospects, marking what is expected to be his final electoral contest.

Flavio Bolsonaro will now contest a runoff against incumbent Lula on October 25. He enters the campaign with several structural advantages.

Beyond his nationwide overperformance and the debunking of pre‑election polls, Bolsonaro is poised to capture the bulk of votes from major third‑party contenders, including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema.

Collectively, these four candidates garnered close to 8% of the vote. The potential endorsements remain uncertain, though expectations suggest that Caiado and Zema may support Bolsonaro, whereas Cury and Santos are unlikely to endorse any candidate.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son has announced a biographical film, while his brother, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, has entered the 2026 presidential race from prison, garnering endorsements. (Ton Molina/Getty Images/ Evaristo Sa / AFP via Getty Images)

Should Flavio Bolsonaro win, he is widely expected to secure the release of his father and several senior military officers currently imprisoned for allegedly plotting a coup to retain power after the 2022 election.

The election also elevated other Bolsonaro family members to higher office: Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelly, secured a Senate seat, as did his son Carlos, while another son, Renan, was elected a federal deputy.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party performed strongly in legislative contests for both chambers of Congress, especially in the Senate, where the party is projected to hold 29 seats, compared with nine for Lula’s Workers’ Party.

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