Brazil Presidential Race Headed for Runoff as Bolsonaro’s Lead Narrows

Brasilia, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro | Oct. 04, 2026, 7:49 p.m. ET | 4 min read

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro held a narrowing lead in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election after most votes were counted, with pollster Datafolha projecting the contest would proceed to a second round.

Mr. Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is leading leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, who is seeking a fourth term, in a campaign dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety, and accusations of U.S. meddling.

With about 93% of votes counted, The Guardian reported that Mr. Bolsonaro led Mr. Lula with 47.78% of the vote to the president’s 44.27%, falling short of the 50% threshold needed to win outright in the first round.

Brazilian pollster Datafolha indicated the two leading candidates were expected to head into a second-round vote on October 25, with surveys showing them polling roughly even.

Early results showed southern states leaning toward Mr. Bolsonaro reporting faster, while votes from Mr. Lula’s northeastern stronghold were tallied more slowly.

Analysts told Reuters they believed Mr. Bolsonaro was receiving “protest votes” from people voting against Mr. Lula rather than for the right-wing senator—votes they had been expected to save until a second round.

A victory for the senator would extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with President Donald Trump, while the incumbent’s reelection could create a headache for Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security.

While polls right up until Saturday showed Mr. Lula would likely lead the first round but not avoid a runoff, Mr. Bolsonaro told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was confident he could win the presidency outright, citing voters’ frustration with his chief opponent.

Mr. Bolsonaro has been counting on “a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula,” he said. “I hope it’s enough to secure a victory in the first round.”

Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Mr. Lula’s Workers’ Party out of office. “I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes,” she said.

Fernando Tempel, a 49-year-old management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Mr. Bolsonaro despite initially planning to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.

Mr. Lula’s allies have warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize election results if he wins, pointing to an aborted effort to send U.S. officials to Brazil. “What is at stake is the future of Brazil,” Mr. Lula said after voting in Sao Bernardo do Campo.

Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Senator Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.

As of Sunday afternoon, the election was proceeding normally, Brazil’s electoral court chief Kassio Nunes Marques said in a press conference.

“Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever,” he said.

Reuters reported that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged U.S. and Russian interference before the election, while the U.S. has rejected claims of interference in Brazil’s affairs.

Despite falling inequality and unemployment, Mr. Lula has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt, and the threat of street crime and pervasive gang activity.

Mr. Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns, while Mr. Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families.

Rising spending and public debt above 82% of GDP have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil’s next president will need to address, with the government lowering its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively.

Overshadowing the policy debate, a scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil’s political class and renewed public anger over corruption. Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation has probed the banker’s ties to figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, widely perceived as an ally of Mr. Lula, to Mr. Bolsonaro, who is being investigated for money laundering tied to the case by federal police.

Mr. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing.

(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu, Brendan O’Boyle, Ricardo Brito and Marcela Ayres in Brasilia, Luciana Magalhaes, Oliver Griffin and Fernando Cardoso in Sao Paulo, Rodrigo Viga Gaier in Rio de Janeiro; Writing by Brendan O’Boyle and Oliver Griffin; Editing by Brad Haynes, Aurora Ellis and Alison Williams)

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