December arabica coffee (KCZ26) fell 2.45 points, or 0.85%, on Friday, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) declined 29 points, or 0.82%.
Arabica futures traded lower on Friday, holding just above Thursday’s seven-week low. The decline followed a late-Thursday report from coffee exporter group Cecafe showing that Brazil’s total coffee exports in August increased 31% year over year to 4.155 million bags, the highest August total on record. Brazilian arabica exports rose 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta shipments increased 54% to 953,592 bags. The figures were released as Brazil’s harvest wrapped up.
Brazil’s Trade Ministry separately reported Tuesday that August coffee exports increased 44.6% year over year to 206,618 metric tons, the largest August total in eight months.
Arabica prices had also declined on Thursday after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected a record 2025/26 global coffee crop and a market surplus. The ICO said production was expected to rise 4.4% year over year to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption would fall 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, creating a 3-million-bag surplus—the first in five years.
Rainfall above normal in Brazil could also support flowering for next year’s crop, a bearish development for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that rainfall for the week ending Aug. 30 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary arabica-growing region, reached 8.9 mm, or 127% of the historical average.
Robusta futures were supported by concerns that heavy rain in Vietnam’s Central Highlands could flood farms and damage the crop. The region accounts for most of Vietnam’s coffee production.
Robusta fell to a three-month low last Thursday amid indications that Vietnamese supplies would expand. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that 2026 coffee exports for January-August increased 13.7% year over year to 1.33 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% year over year to 1.58 million metric tons. For 2025/26, production is forecast to increase 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.
Inventory data offered mixed signals. Falling stocks are generally bullish for arabica: ICE arabica inventories dropped to 217,932 bags on Friday, a 27-year low. Rising inventories are bearish for robusta: ICE robusta inventories reached a 9.5-month high of 5,004 lots on Sept. 2 and eased slightly to 4,972 lots Friday.
Concerns that El Niño could impair Brazil’s crop next season are supportive for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the pattern could delay September and October rains in Brazil, when coffee trees normally flower, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. On July 8, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño event that developed across the equatorial Pacific the previous month was likely to become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Such conditions could bring floods, droughts, and temperature swings later in the year that may affect coffee production across Asia and South America.
The latest USDA semiannual outlook was also bearish. On July 22, USDA projected global coffee output in the 2026/27 season would increase 6.0%, or 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags, largely because of improved growing conditions in Brazil. It forecast arabica production to rise 12% year over year, while robusta output would fall 0.7%. Global ending stocks are expected to increase 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year over year.