.png?w=1024&resize=1024,1024&ssl=1 "Widowspeak, Lambchop, and More: This Week’s Pitchfork Selects Playlist")
July arabica coffee (KCN26) rose 5.40 points (+2.17%), while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) increased 107 points (+3.19%).
Coffee prices surged to a one‑week high today, driven by concerns that persistent rain in Brazil will delay the harvest. Forecaster Vaisala predicts moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s coffee‑growing regions this week, with the precipitation potentially extending into next week.
ICE coffee inventories have been trending lower over the past 2.5 months, supporting prices. Arabica stocks fell to a six‑and‑a‑half‑month low of 402,709 bags on Wednesday, while robusta stocks reached a two‑year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 but have risen to 3,713 lots today.
Speculation that an El Niño pattern could damage Brazil’s coffee crop in the 2026/27 marketing year has further buoyed prices. Traders note that El Niño may delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, the flowering period for coffee trees, thereby affecting the 2026/27 harvest. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, potentially the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency has confirmed El Niño formation across the equatorial Pacific, signaling months of extreme weather that could disrupt coffee production in Asia and South America.
On Tuesday, arabica futures slipped to a 19‑month nearest‑futures low and robusta fell to a two‑month low, reflecting expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop this year.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee harvest of 71.9 million bags, a 14% year‑over‑year increase. Rabobank raised its estimate for a global arabica surplus in 2026/27 to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million.
Prices have been easing over the past six weeks as the global supply outlook improves. The Coffee Trading Academy projected a 12% year‑over‑year increase in Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest to 71.4 million bags on May 7. Marex Group projected a record 75.9 million bags for Brazil on March 19, surpassing Sucafina’s 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y). StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 estimate to 75.3 million bags in March, up from 70.7 million in November, and expects a 2026 global coffee surplus of 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
Export trends from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are exerting downward pressure on robusta prices. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported a 7.9% year‑over‑year rise in coffee exports (January‑May) to 922,000 metric tons, following a 17.5% increase in 2025 to 1.58 million metric tons. Projections indicate a 6% year‑over‑year rise in 2025/26 production to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).
Reduced export volumes from Brazil are supporting prices. Cecafe reported a 1.3% year‑over‑year decline in April green coffee exports to 2.76 million bags.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened global coffee supply chains, supporting prices by raising shipping, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs for importers and roasters.
The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct‑Sep) fell 0.3% year‑over‑year to 138.658 million bags.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast world coffee production for 2025/26 at a record 178.848 million bags, a 2.0% increase year‑over‑year, with arabica output down 4.7% to 95.515 million bags and robusta up 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s 2025/26 production is expected to decline 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to rise 6.2% to a four‑year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million in 2024/25.
