Brazil’s Presidential Race Tightens as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Remain Statistically Tied Ahead of October Vote

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth non‑consecutive term as Brazil’s president in October’s election.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in the latest polls, with less than two weeks remaining until the first round of the election.

Two new polls released on Monday show the two frontrunners locked in a virtual deadlock in simulated runoffs. If no candidate secures more than 50 % of the valid vote in the October 4 first round, Lula and Bolsonaro will advance to a runoff on October 25.

The elder Bolsonaro was barred from office after Brazil’s top electoral court ruled he had abused his authority while in power. He was subsequently convicted of a scheme to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

A Quaest poll released on Monday placed Bolsonaro at 42 % support in a potential runoff, with Lula trailing at 41 %.

Conversely, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll gave Lula 46 % backing, narrowly edging Bolsonaro’s 45 % in a head‑to‑head scenario.

These results mark a tightening of the race compared with an earlier Quaest survey on August 5, which showed Lula leading by a five‑point margin (44 % to 39 %).

US pressure looms over election

Lula formally launched his re‑election campaign on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in São Paulo, positioning himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty amid mounting pressure from the US administration.

Washington imposed two new rounds of tariffs on Brazilian goods in July, a move Lula condemned as an attempt to sway the election through economic coercion.

The Brazilian leader is currently in New York preparing to address the United Nations General Assembly.

On Monday, Lula met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani for the first time. After their discussions, Lula said the two leaders addressed shared challenges, notably the rising cost of living.

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