Brent Crude Slides 5% Amid Renewed Middle East Peace Hopes

Brent crude declined sharply Monday as renewed diplomatic engagement between Iran and Qatar raised hopes for a potential de-escalation in the broader U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.

The development provided market relief following recent heated rhetoric from President Donald Trump, including major strikes on Iran that had threatened to engulf the region in conflict.

Oil fell more than 5% at the start of the week, sliding to three-week lows and triggering several bearish technical signals, including a break below the psychological $100 level, a crossover below the 20-day moving average, and a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $95.11 to $117.40 advance.

Today’s drop also completed a bearish failure swing pattern, signaling further downside from the October 26 peak of $117.43.

The technical picture weakened further on a significant loss of positive momentum, with the 14-day momentum indicator trending south toward the centerline and a bearish crossover between the 5- and 10-day moving averages. This supports a negative near-term outlook, although some profit-taking after the steep decline should be anticipated.

Any upside attempts should remain below the broken 38.2% Fibonacci level at $108.89 to keep the bearish bias intact and position for further easing.

Sellers are eyeing a target at $103.62 (61.8% Fibonacci); a violation of that level could unmask the key $100 support zone, aligned with the 76.4% Fibonacci level, psychological support, and the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud.

The bearish near-term scenario is expected to persist as long as fundamentals remain favorable, while any change in rhetoric—particularly regarding peace talks—could quickly reverse sentiment and push oil prices higher.

Res: 106.30; 107.68; 108.90; 110.00
Sup: 105.50; 104.90; 103.64; 102.34

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