Gold (XAU/USD) extended its intraday rebound from a near two-week trough set during Tuesday’s Asian trading, advancing to around $4,023–$4,024 in recent trade. The US Dollar eased after a robust two-day advance as investors turned cautious ahead of fresh US consumer inflation data and testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. The softer greenback provided tailwinds for the precious metal. Nonetheless, rising US-Iran geopolitical strains and expectations of further Fed tightening continue to underpin the dollar, suggesting restraint before betting on sustained gains in bullion.
Later today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to post a headline decline, dragged down by cheaper gasoline in June. Attention will center on core CPI as the preferred measure of underlying inflation. Concurrently, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semi-annual policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee is likely to shape rate expectations. The resulting policy signals will drive near-term dollar movement and offer direction for non-yielding gold.
Meanwhile, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and heightened US-Iran confrontation have pushed crude oil to a near one-month peak, reviving inflation concerns and bets on prolonged higher US rates. US forces carried out a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated by striking US assets in the region, and two UAE tankers were damaged by Iranian cruise missiles in the waterway. Markets rapidly added geopolitical risk premia, bolstering the dollar.
Despite the current bounce, the broader fundamental setup implies the path of least resistance for gold is upward, yet any rallies may be treated as selling opportunities and could fade swiftly. The XAU/USD pair remains at risk of sliding back toward the year-to-date low near $3,943–$3,942 recorded on June 30.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold May Falter in Recovery Attempt Given Bearish Technical Posture
Technically, bullion remains below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and confined to a descending channel, preserving a bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive, suggesting waning downside momentum. Yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 stays under the midline, confirming a fragile rebound rather than a decisive bullish reversal.
Consequently, upticks are likely to meet sellers and stall near $4,100. A decisive break above that level could spur short-covering, lifting prices toward channel resistance at $4,221. Further gains would test the critical 200-day SMA hurdle at $4,495.01; clearing it would overturn the bearish outlook. Support rests at the channel boundary around $3,761.01, and a firm drop there would reopen a deeper correction.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.10%-0.10%-0.18%-0.23%-0.73%-0.13%EUR0.09%-0.01%0.00% -0.09%-0.14%-0.62%-0.03%GBP0.10%0.01%0.02%-0.08%-0.11%-0.61%-0.02%JPY0.10%0.00%-0.02%-0.0 9%-0.15%-0.65%-0.06%CAD0.18%0.09%0.08%0.09%-0.06%-0.54%0.05%AUD0.23%0.14%0.11%0.15%0.06%- 0.49%0.12%NZD0.73%0.62%0.61%0.65%0.54%0.49%0.60%CHF0.13%0.03%0.02%0.06%-0.05%-0.12%-0.60%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).