Polls have closed in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, marking a pivotal moment for Labour under its new leader, Andy Burnham, as the party aims to defend the seat previously held by Keir Starmer.
The contest is widely viewed as a referendum on Burnham’s ability to maintain unity within Labour’s voter base, while also reflecting the potential for Green Party candidate Zack Polanski to draw support from the party’s progressive wing.
Labour holds an estimated 11,000-vote majority in the constituency, having secured it decisively in the 2024 general election. This by-election serves as one of Burnham’s earliest electoral challenges since assuming office in July, offering early insight into his leadership appeal and Labour’s standing ahead of broader political shifts.
The race has drawn attention to generational and ideological divides, particularly among younger and more left-leaning voters who have grown disenchanted with Labour under Starmer’s tenure, especially regarding housing, climate action, and foreign policy.
Polanski has run a spirited campaign, mobilizing thousands of activists and departing from the Green Party conference to focus on grassroots organizing in north London. His strategy hinges on positioning the Greens as a credible alternative to Labour, despite recent polling suggesting diminishing returns.
Zack Polanski, seen campaigning in London last month, said he did not believe a defeat in the byelection would undermine his leadership of the Green party. Photograph: Andy Hall/The Guardian
The Greens are hoping to replicate their surprise win in Gorton and Denton earlier this year, where they successfully overturned a long-standing Labour hold. However, momentum appears to have shifted since then.
Recent YouGov data places Labour at 27%, with the Greens trailing by 16 points—a reversal from polls taken shortly after their February victory, which showed the Greens slightly ahead of Labour.
Despite this gap, Burnham recently outlined a progressive platform at his first Labour conference as prime minister, aiming to recapture ground lost to the left and reinforce Labour’s appeal to younger voters.
The Holborn and St Pancras electorate includes a high proportion of students, renters, and young professionals, with nearly half of residents aged 18 to 34 and roughly 45% born abroad—demographics often aligned with Green messaging.
Polanski has framed his candidacy as a lever to push Labour toward bolder reforms, including expanded rent controls, accelerated climate action, and public management of utilities like Thames Water.
Nonetheless, questions persist about his leadership capabilities following criticism over his handling of key party decisions at the recent conference, including a controversial motion linking Zionism to racism.
In a statement to The Guardian, Polanski acknowledged the tightness of the race, calling it “probably 50/50” and “really on a knife-edge,” while stressing that his leadership is not contingent on securing the seat.
Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali is hoping to become Keir Starmer’s successor as the MP for Holborn and St Pancras. Photograph: Antonio Olmos/The Guardian
Labour’s nominee, Sagal Abdi-Wali, is a 42-year-old Camden Council leader who arrived in the UK as a child refugee from Somalia. She emphasizes her deep roots in the community and extensive experience in social housing and homelessness initiatives.
The final stretch of campaigning was overshadowed by internal divisions within the Green Party after delegates approved a resolution equating Zionism with racism during their national conference. The motion passed narrowly—1,022 votes to 813—despite strong opposition from most of the party’s parliamentary caucus.
Polanski, who is Jewish, left the conference before the vote took place and did not engage with the contentious decision directly.
Upon polls closing, Burnham condemned the Green Party’s stance, labeling the motion “completely wrong” and a sign of “terrible judgment.”
Speaking from Berlin, Burnham urged Polanski to disavow the policy and reaffirm support for a two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Results from the Holborn and St Pancras by-election are expected overnight, with projections potentially emerging between 2:30 AM and 4:00 AM on Friday. The outcome may signal how effectively Burnham is consolidating Labour’s urban strongholds—and whether the Greens can sustain their challenge for progressive voters nationwide.