Can Iran’s Regime Fall? Inside Israel’s Assessment of Tehran’s Future

What internal pressures are shaping events in Tehran, and how close is the Iranian leadership to collapse? Israel’s defense establishment is closely examining those questions, along with Mojtaba Khamenei’s position and the risk of further instability.

During January and February, intelligence agencies closely monitored Iran’s harsh retaliatory campaign against protesters nationwide. Officials in Washington and Jerusalem collected reports documenting arrests, severe torture and a widespread pattern of citizens disappearing without a trace.

Initially, neither Israel nor the United States had planned another operation after Operation Rising Lion. But as reports emerged of indiscriminate killings involving men, women, children and the elderly, Israel’s defense establishment delivered a stark message in closed forums: “The moment for another operation will come; it is inevitable.”

The impetus went beyond the escalating threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program and former supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to produce thousands of ballistic missiles.

Israeli officials also cited a moral responsibility not to remain passive in the face of mass killings. At the same time, they saw a strategic opening that could ultimately contribute to the collapse of the regime.

The White House meeting and the three-part strategy

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted the US administration’s recommendation and traveled to the White House for a crucial meeting with President Donald Trump, accompanied by senior security officials. The objective was to reinforce cooperation and approve a shared strategic plan.

The closed-door discussion did not produce an explicit commitment to overthrow Iran’s government. One official summarized the position this way: “We are going to create the conditions for regime change.”

To pursue that objective, the Israeli delegation outlined three central pillars: cultivating alternative leadership, conducting targeted influence campaigns and carrying out ground operations. The strategy rested on the conviction that airstrikes alone could not bring down a regime.

Six months after Operation Rising Lion, Israeli security officials assess that Iran’s regime—despite the aggression it continues to direct toward its neighbors—is progressing toward internal decline. The process could take months or even years, although severe economic sanctions and sustained international cooperation could accelerate it considerably.

At present, the regime is struggling to control unrest in the streets and markets while unemployment continues to rise. Oil exports have all but halted, and the economic outlook is deteriorating.

On the military front, Israeli officials assess that intelligence and operational gains have been preserved. According to security sources, Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or transferred its centrifuges, while most of its infrastructure remains buried deep underground.

“They carried out dilutions and various actions, but they did not transfer anything. Their defense industry has been destroyed,” a senior security official said.

The official added that the Pickaxe Mountain facility remains unchanged because there are no aerial munitions capable of destroying it.

A race against time: Anxiety in Tehran, pressure in Washington

The situation is unfolding as a “clock game.” Washington’s clock is measured by fuel prices and President Trump’s patience, while Iran’s is running down day by day. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly suggested reaching a diplomatic agreement “while we are still standing on our feet,” amid growing tensions at the highest levels of government.

For now, Iran refuses to consider concessions and believes it can endure the economic pressure. US statements about sweeping sanctions, however, have placed Tehran under unprecedented strain.

Washington is directing much of that pressure toward the United Arab Emirates and China, which remain Iran’s principal economic lifelines through their purchases of oil on the black market. The aim is to persuade both countries to stop helping Tehran evade sanctions.

Within Israel’s defense establishment, concern is growing over the possibility of an unexpected Iranian move. The assessment is that Tehran could attempt to escape its economic pressure by attacking Israel, hoping to force limited negotiations and secure new understandings.

The message conveyed to Tehran has been unequivocal: if Iran attacks, there will be no way back. Officials have indicated that Israel’s response would target critical national infrastructure that a collapsing regime would be unable to rebuild.

At the same time, Iranian officials remain worried about another surprise attack, and the heightened tensions continue to unsettle senior figures in Tehran.

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