Toronto — Small red maple leaves are appearing beside price tags throughout downtown Toronto grocery stores, marking products made in Canada.
The labels are easy to overlook, but shoppers such as Mateus Gujrel now check for them. They provide a quick indication of a product’s origin—and that information carries greater weight as the trade dispute with the United States expands.
Gujrel, a software developer, reflects a broader rise in economic nationalism across Canada. Since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House last year, relations between the two countries have deteriorated amid successive rounds of US tariffs.
The tensions have made Gujrel “far more conscious” about purchasing locally sourced goods. He changed his almond milk brand and stopped buying LaCroix, choosing a Canadian sparkling water instead.
“Anything that we can clearly see is Canadian, we will take,” Gujrel told Al Jazeera outside a No Frills grocery store on Wednesday.
That shopping approach is becoming increasingly common in Canada. Trump’s tariffs, combined with his repeated comments about making Canada the “51st state,” have strengthened efforts to boycott American products and direct spending closer to home.
“I don’t want our money to go to the US in any way that I can avoid,” Gujrel said.
There is little indication that this sentiment is fading. Margaret Chapman, chief operating officer at market research firm Narrative Research, said her company has been tracking Canadian attitudes toward domestic purchases for roughly 18 months.
“The initiative among Canadians to buy Canadian and support Canadian is not a fleeting sentiment,” Chapman told Al Jazeera. “It’s very strong, it’s ongoing, and it’s probably set to last.”
A renewed escalation of the trade war, however, could make that commitment more difficult. Experts have warned that the dispute could raise consumer prices and lead to job losses.
The trade war has reached a critical juncture. In late August, tensions between the US and Canada surged after negotiations failed to avert Trump’s threatened 50 percent tariffs on nearly $20 billion in Canadian products, including machinery, textiles and hockey sticks.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney later accused the US of introducing last-minute demands into the talks, including terms that were “uneconomic, unfair and undermined the net benefits for Canada”.
The US tariffs took effect on August 22. In response, Canada on Tuesday imposed a new round of retaliatory tariffs ranging from 15 to 50 percent on approximately $20 billion in American imports.
Carney described the measures as a “dollar-for-dollar” response targeting US goods ranging from steel and aluminium to dairy products, appliances, clothing and cosmetics.
When will tariff costs reach consumers?
So far, many shoppers interviewed by Al Jazeera have not noticed dramatic price increases. Economists say that is hardly surprising.
The advisory firm Oxford Economics estimates that only 0.25 percent of the average consumer basket is directly affected by the new tariffs. Much of the targeted Canadian imports are business inputs rather than products purchased by households.
Some costs may still reach consumers indirectly over time. Although relatively few finished foods are directly affected, tariffs apply to packaging materials such as metal cans, glass containers and plastic films.
As a result, even though the food products themselves are not subject to tariffs, their prices could rise.
Retail analyst Bruce Winder said many stores are still selling inventory purchased before the tariffs took effect, meaning shelf-price increases may take time to appear.
“I think you’ll probably see some shelf prices increase in the next several weeks,” he said.
For now, businesses are expected to carry much of the immediate financial burden. Oxford Economics estimates that they will absorb at least half the cost of the new counter-tariffs, while households will account for about 20 percent through higher prices.
Winder cautioned, however, that retailers have only so much room to absorb additional costs—particularly if tariffs of 25 or 50 percent remain in place.
For many Canadians, uncertainty surrounding the trade war may be as significant as its effect on prices.
“I think the larger piece here is the fear, the concern, the anxiety that it’s created,” Winder said. “Even though the tariffs, you can argue, might not hit your pocketbook as much, people are a little nervous right now because of the potential employment impacts.”
How much more are Canadians willing to pay for domestic goods?
The shift toward Canadian products comes as household budgets are already under pressure.
Meeda Buzzeri, who works in finance, has deliberately tried to buy Canadian and avoid American products where possible. For her, the choice is partly a response to Trump.
“Canada is a great economy and a large economy, and we’re not another state of the US,” she said.
But Buzzeri acknowledges that buying Canadian could become harder if it requires paying substantially more.
“There would be a point where it’s like, ‘OK, this is getting extreme,’” Buzzeri said. “My grocery prices are getting too much.”
Research, however, suggests that the buy-Canadian movement remains resilient.
A Narrative Research study found that 76 percent of respondents preferred a hypothetical basket of entirely Canadian groceries worth 120 Canadian dollars (US$86.50) over a cheaper basket likely sourced from the US worth 100 Canadian dollars (US$72).
Even when the Canadian basket cost 140 Canadian dollars—roughly US$101—70 percent of respondents still selected it.
“People said they would do it, and they are doing it,” Chapman said. “Even in tough economic times … people are willing to put more of their dollars if it’s supporting Canada.”
Gujrel is among them. He said he would pay more for a Canadian product, although a price twice as high might make him reconsider.
Experts say that premium may be the real test of consumer commitment to the trend: not whether Canadians want to support domestic businesses, but how much more they can afford to pay to do so.