Cattle Futures Fall Sharply as Brazilian Beef Tariff Exemption Pressures Markets and Export Data Dims Outlook

Live cattle futures declined sharply at midday Thursday, with many contract months down more than $3 per hundredweight (cwt). The contracts had already lost between $1.30 and $2.82 on Wednesday, while open interest fell by 3,922 contracts, suggesting further long liquidation. Cash‑market activity picked up modestly, with a few northern sales of dressed cattle at $378‑$380 and live cattle at $235‑$240 reported by the USDA.

Feeder cattle futures also weakened, dropping 47 cents to $2.80 per cwt on Wednesday, though the August contract remained in positive territory. They reversed course Thursday, trading more than $5 lower after the U.S. Trade Representative exempted Brazilian beef from a proposed 25 % tariff. Open interest for feeder cattle contracts declined by 1,499 contracts overall. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $1.25 on July 14 to $369.07.

USDA export‑sales data for the week ending July 9 showed beef sales of 7,973 metric tons (MT) for 2026, the fourth‑lowest total of the year. Shipments totaled 10,354 MT, a new calendar‑year low.

Wholesale boxed‑beef prices weakened in Thursday’s morning report. Choice boxed beef fell $1.94 to $369.34 per hundredweight, while Select boxed beef declined $1.22 to $357.96. Federally inspected cattle slaughter on Tuesday reached 108,000 head, bringing the week‑to‑date total to 324,000 head—up 6,000 from the prior week but down 20,855 year‑over‑year.

Key futures prices (Aug‑Oct 2026):
Live Cattle Aug 26: $226.900 (‑$3.225)
Live Cattle Oct 26: $223.075 (‑$2.925)
Live Cattle Dec 26: $222.875 (‑$2.675)
Feeder Cattle Aug 26: $345.475 (‑$4.475)
Feeder Cattle Sep 26: $339.700 (‑$4.675)
Feeder Cattle Oct 26: $333.450 (‑$5.400)

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