The fallout from the AfD’s landslide in Saxony‑Anhalt is testing Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s reform agenda, Germany’s support for Ukraine and the political firewall designed to keep the far‑right out of power.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday he was deeply shocked by the CDU’s crushing defeat to the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony‑Anhalt, acknowledging that his own unpopularity had contributed to the result and vowing to press ahead with reforms.
Merz described it as the heaviest electoral defeat the CDU had suffered in decades, after the AfD captured 43.8 % of the vote in the eastern state.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) garnered only 17 % of the vote, roughly half of what it had secured in the previous state election.
Merz said the result would inevitably have consequences, noting that both his personal approval ratings and frustration over the pace of reforms had hurt the CDU campaign.
He acknowledged that his personal standing had been a constant topic in the campaign and that the government would need to improve its communication with voters and address their concerns.
Despite the setback, Merz pledged to continue implementing planned reforms in the economy, pensions and health‑care sectors.
He declared that his determination to pursue reform was unbroken, while admitting that the government must explain its policies more clearly.
Ukraine policy unchanged
Merz sought to reassure Germany’s allies that the AfD’s electoral success would not change Berlin’s support for Ukraine.
The AfD has repeatedly opposed German military assistance to Kyiv and advocates closer ties with Moscow.
Merz emphasised, “Two thousand five hundred kilometres to the east, people are especially delighted with this election result,” an apparent reference to Russia.
He warned of a “very concrete threat” to Germany’s internal security, without providing further details.
The outcome has placed renewed pressure on Merz, who entered office promising to strengthen the economy, tighten migration policy and halt the AfD’s rising support.
Pre‑vote polls had already indicated a difficult night for the CDU, but the magnitude of the defeat exceeded expectations.
Outgoing Saxony‑Anhalt CDU premier Sven Schulze conceded that the political initiative now lay with the AfD.
“We are the opposition – the mandate to govern now lies with the AfD,” he said.
Firewall faces biggest test
The concession has raised questions about whether Germany’s long‑standing political firewall against cooperating with the AfD can survive its most serious test.
Mainstream parties have consistently refused to govern with the AfD, whose Saxony‑Anhalt branch is designated as a right‑wing extremist group by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.
This policy has previously led to unconventional coalitions to keep the party out of power, but the numerical balance in Saxony‑Anhalt is especially difficult.
AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund aims to become the first far‑right leader of a German state government since the Nazi era and has indicated he will seek support from parties and individual lawmakers to secure a majority.
The AfD is only three seats short of an outright majority.
A potential path could involve cooperation with the left‑populist BSW, which won 5.3 % of the vote. Although they have major ideological differences, both parties oppose immigration and share broadly Russia‑friendly foreign‑policy positions.
BSW lead candidate Thomas Schulze said on Monday that his party might be willing to support an AfD governor taking office.
Excluding the AfD would demand an exceptionally broad coalition comprising the CDU, Social Democrats, Greens, the Left Party and BSW – a five‑party alliance that will likely prove challenging to negotiate and maintain.
(with newswires)