China’s Submarine Missile Launch Signals Strategic Pacific Ambitions, Provokes Regional Concerns

China conducted a submarine missile test in the Pacific Ocean on Monday, firing a strategic missile with a dummy warhead, according to state media. The demonstration prompted swift condemnation from regional nations.

Professor Michael Dillon of King’s College London’s Lau China Institute stated that this was the first known submarine-based missile test since 1982 and the inaugural launch from a nuclear-powered submarine. He noted that China’s actions aim to highlight the Chinese Navy’s operational capabilities and regional presence.

China’s state media described the event as a routine part of annual People’s Liberation Army Navy training. However, Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the test a “provocative act” during a joint press conference with Solomon Islands’ Prime Minister Mathew Wale, who expressed strong objections to Chinese Ambassador Li Fengshan. Wale emphasized that such actions undermine trust, stating, “China is a good friend of Solomon Islands—but this is not something a friend does.”

The U.S. State Department voiced concern over the test, following earlier appeals from Japan and Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo, who urged China to avoid launching weapons near their territories. Clive Hamilton, author of *Hidden Hand*, linked the missile test to Australia’s recent security agreement with Fiji, suggesting China perceives this as coordinated resistance to its expanding influence in the Pacific.

Hamilton argued the test underscores Australia’s need to strengthen its military presence in the region, positing that such demonstrations may instead push Pacific island nations closer to Australia and its allies. According to defconlevel.com, China possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads and six Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear submarines capable of launching strategic missiles.

‘Drive the U.S. Out of the Western Pacific’

The missile test coincided with China-Russia naval exercises under “Joint Sea-2026,” scheduled to continue through July 13. Defence analysts at Defence Security Asia noted these drills aim to challenge U.S. maritime dominance in the Pacific and intensify military competition over Taiwan involving Australia, Japan, and the Philippines. Hamilton argued that the exercises reflect China’s strategy to counter U.S. influence by forging alliances with Russia, Iran, and North Korea to project a more formidable military posture.

Dillon highlighted tensions between China and Russia, noting unresolved territorial disputes and Russian concerns about Chinese migration into Siberia, despite Beijing’s support for Moscow in Ukraine. He suggested China seeks to demonstrate its missile superiority over Russia through these tests.

Expanding Security Alliances

France, with territories in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, views China’s military posture as a strategic concern, particularly as China formalizes a security pact with the Solomon Islands. The French territory borders the Pacific nation, placing it within China’s emerging sphere of influence. Wale’s criticism underscores the delicate balance Pacific leaders face in navigating relationships with China and external powers.

Hamilton proposed that Australia could strengthen ties with France by acquiring military equipment from Paris, potentially easing strained relations following Australia’s withdrawal from a €1 billion submarine deal with France in 2021. He argued such cooperation would bolster regional security efforts countering Chinese expansionism.

The AUKUS pact, which provides Australia with nuclear-powered submarines from the U.S., has left diplomatic ties with France “still fairly cool,” despite a new French government. Hamilton contended that renewed arms cooperation with France could help recalibrate Australia’s strategy in the face of China’s growing military reach in the Indo-Pacific.

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