Climate-related disasters are increasingly affecting sub-Saharan Africa, impacting livelihoods, inequality, and public trust. These events—floods, droughts, heatwaves, and storms—are no longer rare, shaping how citizens view their relationship with the government.
Taxation funds critical services like schools, healthcare, and climate adaptation. Its success hinges not just on enforcement but on citizens’ perception of government fairness and responsiveness during crises.
This study examines how climate disasters influence tax morale—the willingness to pay taxes voluntarily. It highlights the interplay between inequality, public trust, and disaster exposure in 25 sub-Saharan African countries between 2011 and 2021.
Tax morale is vital as African nations struggle to meet revenue targets. Citizens are more likely to pay taxes when they trust governments to act fairly and effectively.
Using Afrobarometer surveys and disaster data, researchers analyzed how events like droughts, floods, and heatwaves correlate with tax attitudes. They also explored how inequality and institutional trust mediate these effects.
Statistical models showed that disasters impact tax morale differently: droughts and extreme temperatures reduce willingness to pay, while floods sometimes have the opposite effect. Repeated disasters worsen morale overall.
Disasters also increase inequality, which erodes trust in institutions and further reduces tax compliance. However, strong disaster-response frameworks in countries like Kenya, Benin, and South Africa can mitigate these effects, showing that institutional capacity shapes fiscal attitudes.
The study emphasizes that effective governance—transparent relief efforts, equitable crisis management, and reliable public services—can maintain tax morale even during severe disasters.
Why do climate disasters affect taxation attitudes?
Taxation reflects a social contract. Compliance increases when citizens trust governments to use resources fairly and provide crisis protection. Trust in local institutions and service delivery quality directly boosts compliance.
Disasters strain this contract by creating inequality, undermining trust, and reducing resources for public services.
Research identifies three key impacts: economic hardship from lost livelihoods, trust erosion from perceived unfair aid distribution, and increased government spending that strains finances.
Droughts and heatwaves hit rural, agriculture-dependent communities hardest. Floods’ mixed impact may stem from visible, immediate government action during crises.
Enrico Nichelatti, Postdoctoral researcher, University of Luxembourg
Abrams Tagem, Tax Research Specialist
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