Coalition admits immigration policy lacks full Parliamentary Budget Office costings

Coalition MPs have acknowledged that the party’s newly released immigration policy has not been fully costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), despite Angus Taylor defending the plan as “budget neutral.”

Taylor, along with deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume, stated repeatedly that the Coalition “worked closely” with the independent budget watchdog on its proposal to reduce net overseas migration to 100,000 for two years.

The policy, announced on Tuesday, would set net overseas migration rates at 130,000 in the third year and 160,000 in the fourth.

Business groups and the university sector have warned the cuts are arbitrary, potentially damaging to the economy, and likely to worsen shortages in critical areas such as health and aged care.

Taylor’s office indicated they intend to complete the policy costings before the next federal election, but have relied on internal analysis and existing costings during the design phase. Guardian Australia reports that Coalition sources confirmed the PBO had not conducted a full analysis of the new policy prior to its release.

PBO officials are prohibited from discussing costings with members of parliament but may clarify media reports if they contain errors or misrepresent PBO work.

The PBO declined to comment on Wednesday.

“We’ve been working closely with the Parliamentary Budget Office on analysis of our initiatives and we are confident that this package is budget neutral,” Taylor said when announcing the plan on Tuesday.

He stated the Coalition had “done exactly what the government does” and criticized Labor for not releasing modelling.

Labor and One Nation both aim to reduce international arrivals, capitalising on growing anti-migration sentiment and concerns about housing and essential services.

A policy document indicated the Coalition had collaborated with the PBO to assess “the impact of the package on the budget,” determining it would generate a small positive return.

When questioned about the PBO costings on Wednesday, Taylor told Channel Nine: “We’ve released the outcomes of that budget analysis that we’ve been doing…”

“We have released the figures, and we’ve said it’s budget neutral, and we’ve laid that out.”

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The acting prime minister, Richard Marles, warned the Coalition plan would harm agriculture, aged care, and even defence sectors.

“What we see from the Liberal party is actually policy chasing One Nation rather than policy in the national interest,” he said during a visit to Perth.

“Immigration is absolutely central to this. We need to get the numbers right. We do need to manage them down. That’s what our government’s doing, but we need to do it in a way which can maintain our economy and maintain vital sectors like the defence industry here in Western Australia.”

Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry boss Andrew McKellar rejected the planned cuts, arguing Australia faces a housing supply problem, not an immigration problem.

“When we look at what the Coalition has said, even when we look at what the government and One Nation have said, the problem is each of them are starting from the proposal that they’re targeting a net overseas migration figure. That’s the wrong place to start.”

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