Coalition Strengthens as Smotrich-Feiglin Alliance Clears Electoral Threshold Amid Shrinking Opposition

A recent Maariv poll published on Friday reveals that the partnership between Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party and Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut has surpassed the 3.25% electoral threshold, securing five seats.

Additionally, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party crossed the threshold with four seats. This development elevates Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to 51 seats in the survey for the first time since May.

Conversely, the opposition bloc experienced a two-seat decline to 57, primarily driven by a reduction in support for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. Arab parties also suffered a one-seat loss compared to the previous week’s poll.

This shift casts significant doubt on the opposition’s ability to form a government without external support, as they have fallen four seats short of the 61-seat majority.

However, both the Religious Zionist Party and People of Israel remain at risk of failing to meet the threshold, which could drastically alter the political landscape.

Who is the most suitable prime minister?

The survey also explored public opinion on the most suitable candidate to serve as prime minister.

Recent findings indicate a narrowing gap between Eisenkot and Netanyahu, with 48% of respondents favoring Eisenkot compared to 39% for Netanyahu.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, leader of B’Yachad, is also viewed more favorably than Netanyahu, with 43% of respondents supporting him versus 39% for the incumbent. This margin aligns with previous polling trends.

Former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman trails slightly behind Netanyahu in a head-to-head preference matchup, drawing 39% support compared to 42% for the current Prime Minister.

Regarding geopolitical anxieties, the poll assessed public concern over a potential future conflict between Israel and Iran. A majority of 55% expressed fear of another war breaking out, while 39% stated they were unconcerned, and 6% remained unsure.

The survey also investigated public perception of an alleged “inside betrayal” conspiracy surrounding the events of October 7, 2023.

Among respondents, a slight plurality of 44% believed no “inside betrayal” occurred, while 40% thought it did happen, and 16% were uncertain.

Breaking down these findings by political affiliation, 61% of coalition voters believed in an “inside betrayal,” whereas 64% of opposition voters did not believe such an event took place.

Furthermore, just over half of opposition party voters (52%) advocate for additional mergers within the election bloc prior to the October 7 vote, while 27% prefer current parties to run independently, and 21% were unsure. Supporters of Yair Golan’s Democrats and Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu showed slightly stronger backing for mergers at 57% and 55%, respectively.

Full Knesset election poll results

Yashar (23)

Likud (20)

B’Yachad (15)

Democrats (10)

Yisrael Beytenu (9)

Otzma Yehudit (8)

United Torah Judaism (7)

The Joint List (7)

Shas (7)

Ra’am (5)

Religious Zionist Party-Zehut (5)

People of Israel (4)

The poll was conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4ALL between September 2 and 3. Out of 4,102 individuals invited to participate, 600 respondents (15%) completed the survey. The participants represent a representative sample of Israel’s adult population aged 18 and older, including both Jews and Arabs. The poll’s maximum sampling error is 4%.

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