Costco (COST) Stock Forecast: The Future Value of a $10,000 Investment Over Five Years

Key Takeaways

An investment of $10,000 in Costco (NASDAQ: COST) made five years ago would have more than doubled, growing to nearly $21,000. This represents an average annual growth rate of 15.8%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500‘s solid average annual gain of 12.6% over the same timeframe.

What would a $10,000 investment in Costco today look like in five years?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

To understand Costco’s recent performance, consider the following historical returns:

Source: Data from Morningstar.com as of Sept. 23, 2026.

These figures are impressive, especially given that the S&P 500 has averaged annual returns close to 10% (excluding inflation) over many decades.

Looking ahead, investors should not assume sustained growth rates of 20% or higher, as even 15% might be optimistic. Despite its exceptional business model, Costco is not expanding at a blistering pace. For instance, in its most recently reported fourth quarter, revenue grew a solid 11.2% year over year, while diluted earnings per share increased by 15%.

Using these growth metrics, here is a projection for a $10,000 investment over the next five years:

• At 12% annual growth: approximately $17,600
• At 15% annual growth: approximately $20,000
• At 20% annual growth: nearly $25,000

I still believe Costco is a worthwhile investment, given its commitment to shareholders, employees, and customers alike. Its business model is highly effective, leveraging membership fees to maintain low prices, and it consistently pays a dividend.

The primary drawback currently is its valuation. With a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40, the stock is trading on the steeper side.

Is Costco Wholesale a Buy Right Now?

Before investing in Costco Wholesale, it is important to weigh the broader market context.

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