Costco Shares Draw Analyst Attention After Q4 Beat Sparks Valuation Debate

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) posted a fiscal‑fourth‑quarter earnings beat that held up after excluding a one‑time tariff‑refund boost, yet Friday’s analyst commentary shifted the focus to valuation rather than the quarter’s underlying performance.

Costco shares traded at $891.41 in premarket trading at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, down 0.51% from Thursday’s close of $896.48, per Yahoo Finance. The stock had slipped 0.91% during Thursday’s regular session. 

Costco reported diluted earnings of $6.75 per share, up from $5.87 a year earlier. The figure includes a non‑recurring $0.15‑per‑share benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, net of partial reinvestment aimed at boosting member value. Excluding that benefit, adjusted EPS came in at roughly $6.60, still above the $6.53 LSEG consensus estimate. Total revenue amounted to $95.72 billion, versus the $94.86 billion expected. 

Q4 Operating Results Underpin the Earnings Beat

Costco’s company‑reported net sales climbed 11.2% to $93.9 billion, up from $84.4 billion a year earlier. Unlike total revenue, this figure excludes membership‑fee income, which rose to $1.85 billion from $1.72 billion, bringing the reported quarterly revenue to $95.72 billion.

Total‑company comparable sales rose 9.4%, while adjusted comparable sales that strip out gasoline price and foreign‑exchange effects increased 6.7%. Digitally enabled comparable sales advanced 19.5%, or 19.8% when foreign‑exchange effects are excluded.

Membership metrics added further context to the valuation conversation. Costco finished the quarter with 84.1 million paid members, a 3.8% year‑over‑year increase, while renewal rates in the U.S. and Canada improved by 10 basis points sequentially to 92.3%. Global renewals also ticked up 10 basis points to 89.8%.

Friday’s Analyst Moves Shift Focus to Valuation

The post‑earnings analyst reaction revealed a broad spectrum of price targets, without a clear‑cut positive versus negative divide. 

D.A. Davidson lifted its Costco price target to $1,040 from $1,000, maintaining a Neutral rating; some data services label Michael Baker’s stance as Hold. Raymond James trimmed its target to $1,050 from $1,100 while retaining an Outperform rating. JPMorgan cut its target to $1,015 from $1,100, keeping an Overweight rating, and Mizuho reduced its target to $1,065 from $1,100, also staying Outperform. 

At the lower end of Friday’s new targets, Wells Fargo moved to $950 from $1,000 while keeping an Equalweight rating, and Truist cut its target to $955 from $1,011 while retaining a Hold rating. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating, trimming its target to $1,134 from $1,159, and Bernstein stayed Outperform with a $1,143 target, down by $1. 

Raymond James explicitly linked its target cut to slightly lower valuation‑multiple assumptions and a slowdown in membership growth, even though it acknowledged that adjusted earnings edged ahead of expectations. This nuance explains why analysts can uphold positive ratings while arriving at different price points for the same operating performance.

Valuation remains a key consideration, with Costco trading at about 39.3 times estimated fiscal 2027 earnings according to current MarketScreener data. The Friday revisions are distinct from earlier pre‑earnings calls, such as Telsey Advisory’s $1,135 target dated September 21, Evercore ISI’s $1,100 target on September 22, and BTIG’s $1,125 target on September 23.

Separately, Costco’s tokenized stock (Ondo), ticker COSTon, was quoted at exactly $896.96 at 8:20 a.m. ET on Friday, down 1.71% over the prior 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap. CoinMarketCap notes that COSTon is Ondo’s tokenized representation of Costco equity, and its 24‑hour performance differs from COST’s Nasdaq premarket movement, reflecting a separate trading window.

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