Democratic Midterm Victory Ushers in Uncertain Era for U.S.-Israel Relations

Washington — Nov. 04, 2026, 3:21 p.m. ET

For decades, U.S. and Israeli leaders have celebrated their close alliance, frequently terming it a “special relationship.”

Analysts suggest the Democrats’ decisive capture of both the House and Senate may hasten a shift toward a more fractious partnership.

Even as a lame-duck president, Donald Trump retains authority over foreign policy and is expected to wield his veto power aggressively. Consequently, a Democratic-controlled Congress may face constraints in overhauling U.S. policy toward Israel.

Nevertheless, legislators can scrutinize arms transfers to Israel, curb escalation in the conflict with Iran, and broaden sanctions targeting settlement expansion and vigilante violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.

The victory of vocal critics of Israeli policy, notably Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate win in Michigan, underscores Israel’s tarnished standing following unpopular wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, and highlights how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership has become a political liability.

Progressive Democrats critical of Israel will now possess a “megaphone … to impact public discourse in Washington,” according to David Makovsky, director of the Project on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Brian Snyder/Reuters

Abdul El-Sayed, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, and his wife, Sarah Jukaku, react onstage after his victory in the midterm elections, during an election night rally, in Detroit, Nov. 4, 2026.

Makovsky warns of “horseshoe politics,” where both parties converge on criticizing Israel—Democrats focusing on the Gaza war, Republicans on Iran and the conduct of the conflict. “The critiques are different, but the bottom line is something Israel will not like,” he adds.

A recent Pew Research Center survey found that 80% of Democratic-leaning voters hold unfavorable views of Israel. This sentiment is reshaping the party’s perception of Israel, extending beyond progressives to moderates. Even traditionally pro-Israel Democrats have signaled openness to blocking offensive weapons sales.

Senator Jon Ossoff, who won reelection in Georgia by a wide margin, exemplifies this shift. He has grown increasingly critical of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

Carlos Barria/Reuters

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, waves to supporters during an election night rally after winning reelection in the midterm elections, in Atlanta, Nov. 3, 2026.

Underscoring Israel’s diminished standing, President Trump distanced himself from the ally on Election Day, announcing a halt to $3.8 billion in annual military aid by the end of 2026—despite a memorandum of understanding extending funding through 2028.

“This debate has shifted remarkably quickly,” says Matt Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy. “Uncharacteristically, foreign policy played a major role in the midterms—U.S. relations in the Middle East, Israel, and the decision to launch an unpopular war in Iran, with its toll on American lives.”

Duss anticipates a Democratic Congress will convene hearings on Gaza and the Iran conflict and advance measures like the Block the Bombs Act, which would prohibit a broad range of offensive weapons sales to Israel.

A New Senator from Michigan

Duss describes El-Sayed’s Michigan victory as a “game changer.”

“Not only for his views on Palestine and Israel, but because a left-wing progressive populist has proven he can win in a swing state,” he says. “It will energize populists across a spectrum of issues.”

Some observers argue that the Democrats’ sweeping majority may reduce their reliance on any single faction, including the progressive wing.

In his victory speech, El-Sayed emphasized voters’ desire for domestic investment. In a clear rebuke of U.S. support for Israel, he declared, “We don’t want our money sent to do apartheid, or genocide, or war.”

Other vocal critics of Israel elected to the Senate as Democrats include Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota and Troy Jackson of Maine.

Israel’s Political Future

Last week’s Israeli election produced a deadlock between Netanyahu’s bloc and parties seeking his ouster. Veteran observers say the trajectory of U.S. policy toward Israel hinges on who next leads the country.

“Netanyahu is associated with all the pain points in the U.S.-Israel relationship,” says Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel.

“If he remains the face of Israel, it will be far more difficult,” he says. “A new leader without that baggage could open space for healthier dialogue.”

Jonathan Rynhold, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University specializing in U.S.-Israel relations, argues Congress’s leverage rests primarily on its “power of the purse.” He expresses particular concern over potential anti-Israel resolutions, such as a declaration that Israel’s war in Gaza—launched in response to the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack—constitutes genocide.

“Such a move could cement Israel’s association with those acts … meaning anyone who supports Israel, regardless of their stance on Netanyahu, risks being labeled a supporter of a genocidal state.”

Rynhold warns that U.S. attitudes toward Israel are hardening, making a return to prior bipartisan consensus increasingly elusive.

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