Tim Stewart, President of the U.S. Oil and Gas Association, assesses how Democratic energy policies may affect the Texas oil sector, including proposed suspensions of gas taxes and shifts in regulatory frameworks.
Consumers are projected to encounter higher gasoline prices in 2027 than earlier forecasts, yet they are likely to experience some alleviation compared with the relatively lower pump prices observed throughout most of 2026.
According to the EIA’s latest short‑term outlook, gas and diesel supplies are expected to stay limited through the end of 2027.
The November EIA report estimates that average retail gasoline prices will reach $3.73 per gallon in 2027, down from $3.89 per gallon in the current year.
Nevertheless, this forecast reflects a 5 % upward revision from the agency’s earlier projection of $3.56 per gallon for 2027.
Gas Prices Fall Below $4 per Gallon for the First Time Since July
Gas prices are projected to decline modestly in 2027 relative to 2026, although the EIA’s most recent forecast indicates prices remain above the October outlook. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
EIA noted that, although average retail gasoline and diesel prices are expected to decline in 2027, its forecast has been increased from the previous month’s estimate.
The latest EIA forecast puts diesel retail prices at $5.03 per gallon in 2027, up from $4.49 per gallon in the prior outlook, yet still below the $5.25 per gallon observed in 2026.
EIA now assumes global petroleum markets will endure continued supply constraints through the end of 2027, which should widen crack spreads and boost U.S. refinery activity.
Consumer Inflation Accelerates More Rapidly Than Anticipated in October, CPI Data Reveal
AAA reported that the U.S. national average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since July. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
The forecast notes that global crude oil prices increased for a third straight month in October, driven by declining inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, limited shipping capacity, and higher transportation costs that have constrained supply.
EIA expects that, for most of the Middle East outside Iran, production will revert to pre‑conflict average levels by mid‑2028.
Brent crude spot prices are projected to stay near $100 per barrel through the remainder of 2026, with the EIA forecasting a gradual decline to an average of $77 per barrel in Q4 2027.
Thanksgiving Shoppers May Encounter Higher Turkey Prices as Family Farms Grapple with Rising Costs
Tankers have been subject to attacks by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, slowing oil flows from the Middle East in 2026. (Reuters)
On Tuesday, consumer gasoline prices fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since July, with AAA reporting a national average of $3.97 per gallon.
On Wednesday, gasoline prices slipped further to $3.94 per gallon, representing a decline of about 18 cents from the previous week and 41 cents from a month earlier.
