Germany’s Bild tabloid called the EU’s carbon neutrality claims for electric vehicles a “dangerous” deception. Bavarian Premier Markus Söder echoed the criticism, demanding an end to the planned 2035 combustion engine phaseout and citing new “science” to justify the reversal.
The backlash followed a Technical University of Munich report claiming EU climate strategy is flawed for focusing solely on tailpipe CO2 while treating battery-electric vehicles as “climate-neutral.” The study argued EVs reduce emissions by only 41% compared to combustion engines, ignoring manufacturing and electricity generation impacts.
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The report advocated full life-cycle accounting—from raw materials to fuel—suggesting credits for green steel and recycled components. Several major manufacturers supporting this view, including BMW, Audi, and Volkswagen, are also institutional donors at TUM.
No new insights in TUM report
Georg Bieker of the International Council on Clean Transportation dismissed the TUM analysis as offering no new insights, noting life-cycle assessments were already well established. His 2025 study found EU battery-electric vehicles produce 73% lower lifetime emissions than gasoline cars, rising to 78% with renewable electricity. Other studies, including from the EU and IEA, found 60-66% reductions, while Germany’s Environment Ministry cited up to 80%. Hybrid vehicles still emit more than fully electric models despite outperforming traditional combustion engines.
Bieker noted production emissions for gasoline vehicles account for only about 13% of total climate impact, with most coming from tailpipe exhaust. EV production emissions will become less carbon-intensive over time.
Batteries have a high environmental cost
Bieker acknowledged batteries remain a significant challenge—cobalt and lithium mining drives habitat destruction and water depletion, with 2 million liters needed per ton of lithium (enough for ~125 EVs). However, the ICCT study found battery production’s 40% higher emissions are offset after roughly 17,000 km of driving, and batteries can be recycled unlike burned gasoline.
“We see a trend of emissions decreasing for battery production,” Bieker told DW, noting lithium-iron phosphate batteries generate fewer emissions than nickel manganese cobalt types and are increasingly preferred for safety, longevity, and cost. European battery manufacturing is expanding in larger, more efficient facilities, supported by €1.5 billion in EU interest-free loans, though China still leads cell production.
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Renewable energy making the case for EVs
The electricity generation mix remains crucial since EVs charged on fossil fuel grids carry indirect emissions. However, Europe’s grid is over 70% decarbonized and expected to near full decarbonization by 2040, with solar home installations growing rapidly.
“Europe’s electricity grid is currently more than 70% decarbonised and expected to be almost fully decarbonised by 2040,” said Gabrielle Clark of Eurelectric. “As the production of green steel and battery recycling capacity also ramps up as expected, this will also only strengthen the case even more.” Clark said it wasn’t necessary to replace the EU’s current tailpipe emissions regulation with more complex rules. “Whether assessed through life-cycle assessment or tailpipe emissions, battery-electric vehicles are always the preferred technology for carbon emission reductions in the road transport sector. Their replacement of ICE vehicles must be accelerated, not delayed.”
Rising fuel prices, climate concerns push EV growth
Bieker predicted market forces will prevail over policy, citing global EV sales growth in China and Southeast Asia. “The future will be electric, no matter what European policymakers or German carmakers think,” he said.
EVs are also gaining ground in Europe. A German survey found 54% of respondents more likely to buy electric due to tech advances, rising fuel costs, and environmental concerns.
“We cannot win the race by ignoring it,” Bieker said. “For climate, competitiveness and economic development, we need to double down on electrification and not slow it down.”
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