England’s underdog mindset powers World Cup semi-final push

England’s men face an unusual scenario: they are expected to defeat Papua New Guinea in their final group match, yet remain underdogs to progress from the combined Groups B and C to the semi-finals.

They trail Samoa by 68 points on points difference and cannot finish above Tonga due to their head-to-head record, meaning their semi-final hopes rely on a commanding victory and favorable results elsewhere.

This means they must defeat Papua New Guinea by as large a margin as possible, then hope Tonga overcomes Samoa sufficiently to open a path to the semi-finals.

If everything aligns, they will reach the semi-finals.

England’s women, meanwhile, have a clearer path. A victory over Samoa would secure their semi-final spot, though it would rank among the most significant wins of their campaign. They are capable of achieving this, but the challenge remains evident.

After being outclassed 78-0 by the Jillaroos and witnessing Samoa’s 40-point loss to the same opposition, both sides understand the magnitude of their upcoming tests. These results highlight the formidable challenge ahead.

Both England teams must embody the fighting spirit that defines the nation as they aim to make their mark on the global stage.

Although England’s men rank third globally, this standing holds little weight in the eyes of competitors Down Under. Australia, New Zealand, Tonga, and Samoa are all rated higher, despite England’s recent series whitewashes over Tonga and Samoa.

The complex group format has disadvantaged Brian McDermott’s squad. They effectively had one opportunity to establish a strong position, requiring a win against Tonga in their opening fixture. Instead, they fell 30-12.

Even two convincing victories in their remaining matches may not salvage their campaign.

However, they could still be enough.

They could be enough, even though England’s men hadn’t trained together before the tournament. They could be enough, despite limited preparation with just two training sessions before their opening group match. They could be enough, with the odds stacked against them.

Both England teams face formidable challenges, though for different reasons. The men must navigate a difficult qualification equation, while the women confront opponents with far greater collective experience.

Samoa’s women, in particular, field a squad brimming with young, emerging talent accustomed to regular competition in the National Rugby League Women’s Premiership (NRLW), one of the world’s most demanding women’s rugby league competitions.

Pre-tournament expectations positioned them as the team most likely to challenge the Jillaroos. However, England shouldn’t be underestimated following their heavy opening defeat. The 2022 Rugby League World Cup serves as a reminder: England’s men dominated Samoa in their opening match, only to be defeated in the semi-finals.

For England’s women, the equation is straightforward: defeat Samoa to reach the semi-finals. With their place on the line, they must demonstrate that, despite the developmental state of women’s rugby league in England, they can compete with the best internationally.

A chance to change the narrative

Discussions about what international rugby league needs to thrive have focused on greater investment, more mid-season internationals, and expanded opportunities for the global game to capture public attention. The need for this support is undeniable.

The prospect of both England sides exiting at the group stage has been described as a potential wake-up call for the sport in this hemisphere — a chance to invest in players, elevate the international game’s profile, and find ways to close the gap with teams from the Southern Hemisphere.

But this conversation isn’t new. Following England’s men falling short at the 2008 World Cup, sport leaders reviewed their shortcomings. Many of those voices remain influential today, highlighting how long these questions have persisted.

Failure can drive change. But perhaps the greater shock — and more powerful catalyst — would be for England to succeed when expectations are low.

If both teams defy the odds and reach the semi-finals, it would be more than a sporting triumph. It would signal that English rugby league can compete at the highest level and create momentum for the international game rather than waiting for another setback to force the issue.

Seeing England differently

Before the tournament, McDermott noted that visiting even one NRL club reveals how remarkable it is that England can compete given the infrastructure available Down Under. The playing field is so uneven that England’s position among the international elite is an achievement in itself.

Too often, we judge England’s rugby league teams by how far they still have to go. Perhaps it’s time to consider how much they’ve accomplished despite the disadvantages they face.

Could this be the catalyst for people to recognize the potential of English rugby league and provide it with the backing it deserves?

The sport has long sought its defining moment: the spark that initiates change, the first domino to fall. Maybe, instead of needing another setback to force that change, this could be the tournament where success becomes the catalyst.

It remains a long shot. England knows the task ahead is enormous, but they persist regardless.

They will carry this determination into their matches against Papua New Guinea and Samoa, and by Sunday, we will discover how far their perseverance takes them.

For England, it’s not about the resources they lack, but the fight they show and what they can achieve against the odds.

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