Following EUR/GBP’s prolonged weakness last week, the rally from 0.8453 appears to have finished as a corrective bounce peaking at 0.8611. The prevailing bias remains bearish for the week, pointing toward a retest of the 0.8453 lows. A further decline could extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci projection of the 0.8728-to-0.8453 move originating from 0.8611, currently located at 0.8441. A decisive break below this level would open targets toward the 100% projection at 0.8336. Conversely, if prices move above the minor resistance at 0.8526, the intraday outlook would shift to neutral.
On a broader scale, the advance from the 0.8221 low established in 2024 is considered complete at 0.8863, positioned just below the 38.2% retracement of the 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 range at 0.8867. A more significant decline would likely extend back to 0.8221. Currently, the outlook remains neutral at best while 0.8610 continues to act as support-turned-resistance. However, a sustained break above 0.8610 would suggest that the decline from 0.8863 represents a correction rather than a full trend reversal.
Looking at the long-term chart, price action beginning from 0.9499 (2020 high) is interpreted as part of an extended range pattern originating from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading is expected to persist between 0.8201 and 0.9499 until a clear signal indicates an imminent breakout.
