EUR/JPY Weekly Market Forecast

The EUR/JPY rally that began at 182.01 resumed and continued throughout the previous week, even after a brief pullback. The initial bias has returned to the upside, with the pair targeting a retest of the 187.93 peak. A strong resistance zone near that level could trigger a reversal and extend the corrective pattern with another downward leg. For now, the risk remains on the upside as long as the 184.42 support holds.

In the broader context, the pullback from 187.93 was steep and shows no immediate sign of reversal. The uptrend that began at 114.42 (the 2020 low) is expected to resume later, targeting a 78.6% projection from 124.37 (the 2022 low) to 175.41 (the 2025 high) based on a move from 154.77 at 194.88. Nevertheless, a sustained break below the 55‑week exponential moving average, currently at 178.53, would indicate a medium‑term downtrend toward 175.41, now acting as resistance turned support.

On the long‑term chart, an uptrend that started at 94.11 (the 2021 low) is currently underway. The next projected target is a 138.2% move from 94.11 to 149.76 (the 2014 high), extending from 114.42 (the 2020 low) to approximately 191.32. This scenario remains the preferred outlook as long as the 55‑week EMA, presently at 178.53, holds.

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