On Thursday, bearish momentum intensified, pushing the pair to its lowest point since late May 2025. The decline was driven by a mix of factors, including higher oil prices weighing on inflation, the eurozone’s fragile economy, political uncertainty, and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
EUR/USD slipped below the 1.1300 level for the first time in 17 months, touching a low of 1.1265 — a 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the third wave in the five‑wave sequence that started from the August 21 peak at 1.1711. The pair remains on course for a third straight weekly decline.
Daily technical indicators remain firmly bearish, reinforcing a negative short‑term outlook. However, an extended 14‑day momentum reading and an oversold RSI hint that the bearish pressure could encounter stronger resistance ahead.
Should the downtrend pause, the pair could enter a consolidation phase or experience a modest correction amid worsening fundamentals. The June 24 low of 1.1324 now acts as solid resistance, with the descending 10‑day moving average at 1.1387 likely capping any rebounds. This sets up potential bearish entry points near the round 1.1200 level and the 1.1130 mark, which corresponds to a 50% retracement of the rally from 1.0177 to 1.2082.
Res: 1.1324; 1.1355; 1.1387; 1.1411
Sup: 1.1265; 1.1200; 1.1130; 1.1100
