The Euro advanced against the US Dollar, positioning itself for a weekly gain after June’s Nonfarm Payrolls report missed expectations. The US economy added only 57,000 jobs, well below the forecasted 114,000. Average hourly earnings held steady at 0.3%, while the unemployment rate dipped 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%. In response, the US Dollar Index slid over 0.40% as markets priced out near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Elsewhere, gold extended its winning streak to a second day, eyeing a break above the $4,000 level. Oil prices continued to decline as supply increased following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell to $71 per barrel and may slide further, with analysts projecting that crude flows through the strait could surpass 10 million barrels per day.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated on Wednesday the central bank’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target, while maintaining his stance against providing forward guidance. He emphasized that investors should focus on real-time economic data rather than policy signals.
Technical outlook
The broader EUR/USD outlook remains bearish despite a corrective rally. After probing the 1.1340 level, the pair formed higher highs and higher lows before consolidating between 1.1380 and 1.1434. The NFP-driven breakout from this range has positioned the market for further upside, with supply zones looming above.
Bullish scenario
The near-term bias favors buyers following a break above a descending trendline and a retest of the 1.1470 resistance, which previously capped gains. To confirm bullish momentum, the pair must secure a daily close above 1.1480 and hold it as support on any pullback. Sustained buying pressure could then target supply zones at 1.1530 and 1.1600.
Bearish scenario
However, the dominant downtrend remains intact as price trades below key supply zones and the series of lower highs and lows persists. Sellers aligned with the broader trend should watch for rejection at 1.1480 or 1.1530. A failure to breach these areas could trigger another downside leg, exposing support at 1.1380 and 1.1343.
