Euro-Pound Sterling Weekly Analysis: Neutral Bias Persists Amid Key Support Test

EUR/GBP posted modest gains last week but could not maintain levels above 0.8610, which has shifted from support to resistance. The near-term bias remains neutral to bearish. A breakdown below 0.8551 would signal completion of the corrective rebound from 0.8453, likely triggering a retest of that low. Conversely, a sustained move above 0.8610 would weaken the bearish outlook and open the door to a stronger advance toward 0.8728.

On a broader scale, the rally from the 2024 low of 0.8221 appears to have concluded near 0.8863, aligning closely with the 38.2% retracement level of the 0.9267-to-0.8221 move at 0.8867. Any further decline would likely return to the 0.8221 floor. The outlook remains neutral at best as long as the 0.8610 level holds as resistance. However, a decisive break above 0.8610 would suggest the drop from 0.8863 may have been a correction rather than a reversal.

Looking at the longer-term framework, price movement from the 2020 high of 0.9499 is viewed as part of a larger range established between the 2008 peak of 0.9799 and the 2024 trough. Range-bound trading is expected to persist between 0.8201 and 0.9499 until a clear breakout signal emerges.

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