The Euro remained above 1.1500 following cooling US inflation data, easing expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, markets are awaiting EU economic growth figures to gauge the currency pair’s trajectory.
EUR/USD Consolidates as Soft US Inflation Meets Higher Spanish Inflation
The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed cooling inflation in both headline and core measures, falling to 4.7% and 4.2% respectively from June’s levels. This data aligns with the earlier Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, indicating a continued disinflation trend.
This shift prompted investors to adjust their expectations, moving from anticipating a rate hike in September to a hold. Probability for a December rate hike dropped from 70% to 67%, according to Prime Terminal.
Weekly jobless claims increased to 209K, slightly above the 200K estimate but near the four-week average of 199K.
Geopolitical tensions remained subdued, with Iran asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, echoing claims made by US President Donald Trump.
In Europe, inflation in Spain surged to 3.9% in July, marking the highest rate since May 2025 and primarily due to rising energy costs.
Money markets now show an 87% probability that the European Central Bank will raise rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, keeping EUR/USD in a sideways range as players await catalysts from the Middle East.
On Friday, the Eurozone will release Q2 GDP figures, with growth expected at 0.4% sequentially and 1.0% year-over-year. The US will publish July retail sales data, forecasted at 0.1% monthly and a 0.5% increase in the control group for GDP calculations.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Near-Term Outlook
On the daily chart, EUR/USD stands at 1.1529, sustaining a mildly bullish near-term bias above key support levels. The triple-moving average at 1.1465 provides a floor, while the broken trend line at 1.1477 now acts as a ceiling. The RSI around 57 suggests buying interest without overbought signs. Support levels are at 1.1529 (recent base), 1.1477 (former resistance), and 1.1465 (moving average). Resistance lies at 1.1849; a break above could trigger a broader upward move.
Euro Price This Week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| Currency | USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.01% | 1.12% | -0.10% | 0.13% | 0.77% | 0.79% |
| EUR | -0.22% | -0.22% | 0.86% | -0.37% | -0.15% | 0.48% | 0.46% |
| GBP | -0.01% | 0.22% | 1.01% | -0.22% | 0.05% | 0.67% | 0.63% |
| JPY | -1.12% | -0.86% | -1.01% | -0.89% | -0.62% | -0.16% | -0.13% |
| CAD | 0.10% | 0.37% | 0.22% | 0.89% | 0.26% | 0.73% | 0.88% |
| AUD | -0.13% | 0.15% | -0.05% | 0.62% | -0.26% | 0.60% | 0.57% |
| NZD | -0.77% | -0.48% | -0.67% | 0.16% | -0.73% | -0.60% | 0.01% |
| CHF | -0.79% | -0.46% | -0.63% | 0.13% | -0.88% | -0.57% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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