Now that Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), or SpaceX, has arrived on Wall Street, investors can begin looking ahead to its first earnings report as a public company, expected to be the most anticipated event of the earnings season in early August.
CEO Elon Musk is set to provide updates on SpaceX’s business, as recent developments include a $60 billion stock‑based acquisition of AI startup Cursor and the availability of more than $100 billion in cash to fund its ambitious initiatives, such as orbital AI data centers.
SpaceX will need time to deliver on its immense potential
SpaceX’s S‑1 filing revealed a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with AI representing the predominant portion of that value, despite the company’s public image centered on Starlink and launch services.
SpaceX offers a compelling mix of AI and space growth opportunities, but realizing its ambitious objectives—such as orbital data centers—will require considerable time, as Musk is accustomed to ambitious timelines.
Although AI presents a large growth opportunity, it remains SpaceX’s least profitable segment and is contested by rivals like OpenAI, while Starlink, the company’s most profitable unit, has seen its revenue growth decelerate sharply from 96.4% in 2024 to 49.8% in the prior year.
The IPO injects substantial capital that could accelerate growth, yet SpaceX’s near‑term performance will be judged more on its long‑term prospects than on the outcomes of its first earnings report.
That valuation could spell trouble in the meantime
Looking ahead is natural, as investors price stocks on future expectations rather than past performance. However, SpaceX’s market capitalization of $2.2 trillion—approximately 118 times its annual revenue—highlights a valuation that may be difficult to sustain.
Few stocks can sustain such elevated valuations, and SpaceX faces significant pressure; a miss in performance or lack of a compelling catalyst could trigger a sharp sell‑off, making further upside in the near term unlikely as the initial IPO hype fades.
Waiting for the first earnings report and Musk’s outlook may be prudent before committing capital.
Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?
Before purchasing SpaceX shares, investors should weigh the elevated valuation and limited short‑term upside, making it advisable to wait for the first earnings report and Musk’s strategic outlook.
