LONDON— Rising geopolitical friction, uncertainty stemming from the conflict in Iran, and contentious debates over defense spending across Europe and the United States will dominate the agenda at next week’s Farnborough International Air Show.
Industry leaders and analysts note that several factors distinguish this year’s biennial event from previous editions. Traditionally, the commercially focused expo is preceded by the Royal International Air Tattoo (RIAT) at RAF Fairford, one of the world’s largest military airshows. However, organizers canceled the public portion of RIAT in late May, citing uncertainty over base access driven by the ongoing Middle East crisis.
“This has not been an easy decision,” the RIAT statement read. “It follows extensive discussions with the Royal Air Force and the United States Air Force regarding uncertainty over access to RAF Fairford, given the ongoing situation in the Middle East.”
Consequently, the Farnborough show, running July 21 to 24, is expected to absorb much of the military attendance and industry focus, according to Eric Fanning, President and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA). The event follows a turbulent NATO summit and sustained pressure from the Trump administration for allies to increase defense burdensharing. In Washington, a proposed $1.5 trillion military budget aimed at revitalizing the defense industrial base faces significant hurdles, partly due to political disagreements over funding for the Iran conflict.
Fanning noted that while government participation levels remain stable, the Iran war has introduced logistical complexities for military aircraft displays. The U.S. Air Force plans to showcase the F-35 Lightning II, C-130J Super Hercules, UH-60 Black Hawk, and CH-47 Chinook, alongside assets from the United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Italy, and Turkey.
With RIAT’s cancellation, U.S. corporate presence at Farnborough has surged to a record high. “With the cancellation of RIAT, and with everything that’s going on, this is actually, for the U.S., a record attendance,” Fanning said. “There are more U.S. companies involved… than ever before.” This comes on the heels of a 25% increase in U.S. aerospace exports over the past year, with the U.K. ranking among the top five destinations.
Fanning suggested the strategic tension surrounding this year’s show exceeds that of the 2023 Paris Air Show. “It’s only intensified,” he said. “There’s so much focus on, pressure on, and questions about the transatlantic alliance and the future of the alliance.”
A key trend analysts are watching is the apparent contradiction in U.S. policy: pressing European nations to spend more on defense while simultaneously urging them to purchase American systems. J.J. Gertler, senior aviation analyst at the Teal Group, noted that European nations have had over a year to advance indigenous programs since signals emerged of reduced U.S. engagement. “What programs are on display that weren’t there two years ago, and what are their big plans for the future?” Gertler asked.
The United Kingdom has signaled a response. Following the resignation of its defense secretary over spending commitments, London unveiled a $298 billion Defence Investment Plan prioritizing space, autonomous systems, and cyber capabilities. The government has pledged to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP in the next parliamentary term, with a NATO-aligned target of 3.5% by 2035.
Elsewhere, progress has stalled. Last month, France and Germany abandoned their collaboration on the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a next-generation fighter program also involving Spain. Gertler will be monitoring Farnborough for signs of independent replacement initiatives. “Do we see announced at Farnborough either of their replacement programs… to move forward on a next-generation aircraft?” he said. “It’s awfully soon, but then again, they’ve had a lot of time to get ready.”
