Forever Young Returns from Extended Layoff as Heavy Favorite in Jockey Club Gold Cup

Forever Young, the global champion with 11 victories in 15 races and over $31.7 million in earnings, makes his comeback after a 175-day absence in Friday’s $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at the newly rebuilt Belmont Park.

The five-year-old sensation, a two-time Saudi Cup (G1) winner who nearly secured Japan’s first Kentucky Derby (G1) victory in 2024, enters as the 3-5 morning-line favorite against a field of six competitors.

The challengers collectively lack the Grade 1 achievements of Forever Young, who is making his seasonal debut after finishing second in the Dubai World Cup (G1) on March 28. The horse has been training in Japan since August, preparing for the 1 ¼-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup as a steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup Classic on October 31.

“He’s had a significant break since the Dubai World Cup, and he returned to training at Hakodate Racecourse in early August during the cooler weather,” explained Hiroshi Ando, racing manager for owner Susumu Fujita. “To avoid the mainland’s heat, we prepared him there. The conditions are excellent, and he travels well for long flights.”

How well he performs after such an extended layoff against a relatively untested field remains to be seen. Despite the apparent mismatch, questions linger about whether this race serves as a tuneup for his October campaign rather than a statement of dominance.

Challengers Analysis

The field features Baeza at 9-2, Phileas Fogg at 4-1, Chunk of Gold and Banishing each at 12-1, Stars and Stripes at 15-1, and Render Judgment at 20-1.

Sovereignty, originally expected to challenge for Horse of the Year honors, was scratched due to a foot abscess. The previously hyped matchup between Forever Young and Sovereignty had been promoted by racing officials since last year’s BC Classic, where Sovereignty was withdrawn with a fever.

Baeza, trained by Bill Mott, enters 0-for-3 this season with starting gate concerns. His resume includes a third in the Alysheba Stakes (G2), second in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1), and fourth in the Whitney Stakes (G1). Junior Alvarado will ride.

Stars and Stripes, a pace contender, won the Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga on August 13 but ran eighth, 17 ¼ lengths behind, in the Suburban Stakes. Veteran jockey John Velazquez has the mount.

Chunk of Gold earned a West Virginia Derby (G3) win in 2025 but is 0-for-2 in 2026 after a seven-month break. He was added to the field following Sovereignty and Money Time’s withdrawals, finishing last out a neck behind Bishops Bay in the Monmouth Cup (G3).

Banishing, trained by David Jacobson, could offer value with his March Godolphin Mile (G2) victory. The six-year-old gelding finished eighth, 10 ¾ lengths behind Forever Young, in the Saudi Cup. He placed second to Willy D’s in the Charles Town Classic (G2). Joel Rosario rides.

Render Judgment, sent by Kenny McPeek, has one allowance win in his last 12 starts. Manny Franco, fresh from his inaugural Saratoga riding title, will be aboard.

While Forever Young remains the clear pick, his long absence could allow Baeza, who finished third in the 2025 Triple Crown races behind Sovereignty and Journalism, to present a genuine challenge.

“I am delighted to compete in the United States again with Forever Young, following our participation over the past two years,” trainer Yoshito Yahagi said. “It is an honor to race in New York at this memorable time, coinciding with the reopening of historic Belmont Park. Through these races—the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland—we hope to contribute to American horse racing’s development.”

Forever Young will work over the Belmont course on Tuesday with regular rider Ryusei Sakai. Post time is 4:14 p.m. ET, race five on a nine-race card.

Picks: 1 Baeza 2 Forever Young 3 Banishing

Starting Gate and Odds:

1 Baeza (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott) 9-2

2 Stars and Stripes (John Velazquez, Bill Mott) 15-1

3 Chunk of Gold (Jaime Torres, Ethan West) 12-1

4 Phileas Fogg (Kendrick Carmouche, Gustavo Rodriguez) 4-1

5 Banishing (Joel Rosario, David Jacobson) 12-1

6 Render Judgment (Manny Franco, Kenny McPeek) 20-1

7 Forever Young (Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi) 3-5

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