Sports spending and viewership have shown resilience amid ongoing inflationary pressures. Notably, the 2026 FIFA World Cup became the most-watched sporting event globally, generating a record $15 billion in revenue. Stocks of other major sports entertainment firms have mirrored this upward trend. For instance, TKO Group Holdings—the parent of UFC and WWE—is up 16% over the past year, while Madison Square Garden Sports, owner of the New York Knicks, has surged by 93%. In comparison, Formula One’s stock performance remains flat during the same period.
Nonetheless, analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the brand. In a report from last month, JPMorgan analyst David Karnovsky highlighted improving sentiment driven by management’s strategic focus on commercial expansion, especially in sponsorship and licensing sectors. His firm maintains a “buy” rating on the stock, citing expectations that 2027 EBITDA will benefit from a full racing calendar and the addition of new venues such as Turkey.
Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its “overweight” position on the stock earlier in July, raising its price target from $120 to $125, implying approximately 21% upside based on recent trading prices. Moreover, analyst Sean Diffley emphasized in his own analysis that significant monetization opportunities still lie ahead, particularly in underdeveloped markets like the United States and Asia. He noted that many Americans struggle to name just three top drivers, pointing to substantial untapped potential.
A key area identified for rapid growth is licensing and consumer products. According to Diffley, these segments hold the potential to double—or even quadruple—revenue within a few years, though he acknowledged that realizing this vision may require further investment.
The foundation for Formula One’s popularity boom began when Liberty Media acquired the organization in 2017, at a time when viewership had been declining. Since then, strategic partnerships played a pivotal role—including a landmark collaboration with Netflix for the hit docuseries Drive to Survive, which significantly boosted global engagement. By midway through the 2025 season, viewership had increased by 63% compared to 2018 levels. The sport’s continued rise followed the success of Apple TV’s F1-themed film.
Adding to the positive outlook, Bernstein analyst Ian Moore projected that sponsorships alone could generate over $1 billion annually by fiscal years 2027 and 2028. In a July 28 research note, he stated: “We continue to see sponsorship approaching ~$1.1B by FY2027 and ~$1.2B by FY2028, representing roughly 30% of primary revenue, versus a ~$268M base when Liberty took control in 2017.”
Moore went on to add, “We believe the sponsorship compressed-lag thesis continues to gain traction. Six league-level sponsorship deals were finalized ahead of Apple’s inaugural U.S.-based grand prix, and recent developments include closing gaps in insurance partnerships we previously flagged.”
Regarding licensing ventures, Moore estimated the current royalty market at $80–150 million—an amount anchored by collaborations with brands such as LEGO, Mattel, Disney, and EA, alongside the growing F1 Movie franchise—and sees a realistic path for this figure to reach between $175 million and $310 million by 2028.
Analysts broadly agree that despite trailing behind peers like TKO and MSG in recent stock performance, Formula One stands well-positioned for accelerated returns thanks to its evolving business model and expanding global footprint.
