French Open 2024: Can Djokovic Capitalize on Sinner’s Absence?

Novak Djokovic’s quest for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title at the French Open faces a pivotal question: Can the 39-year-old Serb seize his opportunity if world No 1 Jannik Sinner falters? That’s the view of Sky Sports’ Jonathan Overend, who suggests Djokovic’s path to glory hinges on circumstances aligning in his favor.

For all his experience, Djokovic shares the record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles with Margaret Court and entered this year’s French Open with limited match preparation. Yet the Serb marked his latest campaign for a record 25th Grand Slam title by securing a 5-7 7-5 6-1 6-4 first-round victory over local hope Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, crossing a milestone and overcoming a tricky hurdle.

Djokovic’s Italian Open campaign ended in disappointment, losing to Croatian qualifier Dino Prizmic after two months out due to a right shoulder injury. However, with Carlos Alcaraz—the two-time reigning French Open champion—absent due to an injured wrist, Djokovic perceives a genuine opportunity to advance through the lower half of the draw.

Alcaraz’s absence represents a significant blow to the tournament and tennis narratives, as the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry drives much of the men’s game excitement. “When you consider seven match wins and best-of-five sets, there’s substantial jeopardy over 14 days,” Overend explained. “To have someone as dominant as Sinner as overwhelming favorite is incredibly rare.”

“Having only one of Sinner and Alcaraz in the draw gives Djokovic additional motivation,” Overend continued. “If the unthinkable happens and Sinner exits early, I’d fully expect Djokovic to navigate the bottom half of the draw. Could it be the record-breaking Grand Slam? I believe so—if something intervenes with Sinner.”

The commentator noted that Sinner, riding a 29-match winning streak, would be the favorite in any final against Djokovic. However, he emphasized that the absence of Alcaraz creates a unique opening. “The matches between Sinner and Alcaraz haven’t been epics compared to last year’s Roland-Garros final. You wonder when the next classic encounter will materialize—it won’t be this summer, which is regrettable.”

Regarding the draw, Djokovic’s positioning means he’d only meet Sinner in the final. In Sinner’s half, the highest seed is Felix Auger-Aliassime (No 4), while Ben Shelton (No 5) and others have struggled on clay this season. “If Sinner falters, Djokovic has the experience to capitalize,” Overend observed. “It’s concerning for the tournament’s narrative, but Grand Slams thrive on unpredictability.”

Looking ahead to Wimbledon, Overend referenced historic upsets as cause for caution. “I was courtside when Lukas Rosol shocked Nadal, and Nick Kyrgios nearly repeated that feat. These moments require something extraordinary on the day. Stakhovsky served and volleyed creatively, while Rosol hit every shot with precision—that’s what it takes to challenge giants.”

“Sinner enters Wimbledon as overwhelming favorite, perhaps the clearest favorite we’ve seen. Until Alcaraz returns, every Grand Slam feels like Sinner’s to lose. The question isn’t whether he’ll win—it’s whether an unlikely hero emerges on the biggest stage.”

The 2024 French Open promises compelling storylines beyond Sinner’s dominance, offering Djokovic a window of opportunity amid extraordinary circumstances.

He continued: “We’ve seen injuries derail champions like Alexander Zverev leading Nadal at Roland-Garros. We’ve witnessed illness force withdrawals too. If Sinner encounters trouble, Djokovic will declare, ‘This is my moment’—with only one superstar in the draw, that extra incentive becomes tangible.”

“If the unthinkable strikes Sinner, I’d expect Djokovic to conquer the bottom half. Should they meet in the final, Sinner would be favored, but over 14 days and seven matches, anything remains possible.”

“It’s telling that we’re searching for alternative narratives—these are signs of how far ahead Sinner and Alcaraz stand. You can count on one hand the players with realistic chances against Sinner or Alcaraz at this year’s French Open or Wimbledon.”

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