Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, discusses how fuel prices could influence the upcoming midterm elections.
Elevated gasoline costs ahead of November’s midterm elections may produce the same voter backlash for Republicans that Democrats experienced in 2022, when the national average topped $5 per gallon, according to an energy expert speaking to FOX Business.
De Haan made the observation this week as GasBuddy data shows the national average at $4.42 per gallon on Wednesday. Four years ago, Democrats lost their narrow House majority despite holding both chambers before the vote—a scenario that mirrors the current Republican incumbency.
“Traditionally, high gas prices going into an election have a negative impact on the incumbent party. Democrats were hurt with high prices in 2022, and Republicans could feel that same fate in 2026,” De Haan told FOX Business. “Especially with fuel prices being so actively discussed in the media, it’s a common reminder for Americans that prices remain very elevated, both on gasoline and for diesel.”
“So, generally speaking, high gas prices going into an election hurt an incumbent party and that’s probably why we are seeing politicians at various levels trying to address the high prices,” De Haan continued. He noted several policy responses: the Trump administration is considering a temporary diesel export ban; states such as Indiana, Georgia and Ohio are exploring gas‑tax relief; and California Governor Gavin Newsom is waiving state fuel‑requirement standards in hopes of lowering pump prices.
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Gas and diesel prices remain elevated in the United States ahead of the midterm elections. On the right is President Donald Trump during an announcement at the White House on Monday, Sept. 28, 2026. (Reuters/Ken Cedeno; Bonnie Cash/Pool/Sipa USA / Reuters)
De Haan said overall, there have been “a lot of political maneuvers ahead of the election here to drive prices down when they’ve been very high for seven months.”
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers emphasized the administration’s focus on energy policy: “President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families. A few weeks ago, the president met with nearly a dozen refiners at the White House to discuss ways to expand our refining capacity, which will lower prices at the pump,” she said. “As the U.S. continues to maintain full control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will fall back to pre‑conflict levels.”
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A person finishes pumping gas at a QT gas station on Sept. 24, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)
A mid‑September Fox News poll found that 61 % of voters consider gas‑price costs a major problem for them, up from 48 % two years ago.
De Haan added that prices “could” drop before the midterms, but the extent depends on ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran, and the conflict involving Ukraine and Russia. “Generally speaking, gas prices do usually moderate in the fall, regardless of political year or election. Gas prices always decline in the autumn as the nation transitions back to cheaper winter gasoline and as gasoline demand progressively declines with the onset of colder weather,” he explained. “This year, of course, with geopolitical tensions … have at least for now temporarily delayed that decline, and they could impact that decline in the weeks ahead.”
Voters check in on the second day of early voting ahead of the midterm elections, at a polling place at DuPage Event Center and Fairgrounds in Wheaton, Illinois, on Sept. 25, 2026. (Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
He concluded, “For now though, the price of oil has declined somewhat as some oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz, so it is possible that we could start to see some declines materialize, though it still could be a volatile time ahead of the election as these geopolitical tensions do continue to play a role,” De Haan also told FOX Business.
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