Gaza watches Israel election amid fears of further displacement and hardship

Gaza City – For three years, Palestinians in Gaza have endured the devastation of their urban areas and repeated displacement from their homes. Israel’s genocidal war, launched in October 2023, has claimed over 70,000 lives and shaped the destiny of those still there.

Although Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank cannot vote, many are watching the Israeli party campaigns closely, aware that the election outcome will affect their daily reality.

Thirty‑year‑old Maryam al‑Dabala, who has been displaced about 14 times during the war, expressed concern that a new Israeli government would continue the same policies toward Gaza as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration.

“If Netanyahu’s far‑right government succeeds, it will continue the policy of forced displacement of the people of Gaza,” she told Al Jazeera.

“The biggest fear is that the Netanyahu government will carry out a policy of forcibly displacing Palestinians outside the Gaza Strip.”

Many Palestinians doubt that a victory for frontrunner Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, would improve their lives. Eisenkot served in Netanyahu’s government during the first eight months of Israel’s war on Gaza, advocates for West Bank settlements—illegal under international law—and opposes a two‑state solution.

Nevertheless, al‑Dabala regards another Netanyahu government, likely backed by far‑right ministers such as Itamar Ben‑Gvir, as the worst possible outcome given her experiences.

“A far‑right government would have a major impact because of the lack of aid, the lack of medicines and the basic necessities of life,” she said.

“Life is already very difficult because of the shortage of medicine, food and basic necessities. Even the tents we live in do not protect us from the cold or from bombardment.”

This uncertainty weighs most heavily on families who fear that any dramatic political shift in Israel could be followed by renewed escalation on the ground in Gaza.

A “ceasefire” that took effect on October 10 has not halted the violence. At least 1,399 Palestinians have been killed and 4,863 injured since then.

Almost the entire population of Gaza has been displaced at some point during the war, often multiple times, with many still residing in tents and temporary structures across the enclave.

Sixty‑five‑year‑old Osama al‑Arbaei has been displaced more than a dozen times after his home in Gaza City was bombed, killing nine family members.

Speaking from a temporary shelter in a school, he said he did not expect conditions in Gaza to improve regardless of who wins the election.

“There is an agenda, there are red lines and there are margins. There may be a small change in the margins, but the principle does not change,” he told Al Jazeera.

Life for al‑Arbaei and many others in Gaza consists of repeated cycles of violence, displacement and worsening hardship. He has no income, and his main concern about the election is its potential impact on food prices, living conditions and employment opportunities.

“Food is still difficult and expensive, and there is no work. A box of tomatoes, for example, can cost 20 or 50 shekels ($6.63 to $16.59) while I don’t have even 2 shekels,” he said.

Despite his bleak assessment, he said he remains defiant, no matter who leads Israel in the coming years.

“I don’t fear anything. I leave it to God,” he said. “I have never left Gaza, and I will not leave, no matter what happens. I will die here, God willing.”

‘We are human beings too’

Umm Mohammed Khalil, a 59‑year‑old widow displaced from the Sheikh Zayed neighbourhood in northern Gaza to Gaza City, has lived through many Israeli governments and sees little difference among them.

“What will change for Gaza?” she said. “Every time we say, ‘God, let the next one be better than the one before.’ But they are all the same.”

She supports 19 family members, and her son and son‑in‑law are missing. Her primary worry is whether the violence in Gaza will intensify further. The constant sound of Israeli drones overhead frightens her and her family.

Umm Mohammed regards the election more with frustration than hope, directing her message to Israeli voters rather than politicians.

“Feel for us. We Palestinians are also souls. We are also human beings, people just like you,” she said. “Have mercy on us. No more wars, no more of what is happening in Gaza.”

When asked about a possible return of Netanyahu to lead the next government, she expressed fear of further killings, destruction and displacement.

“Enough death, enough destruction, enough displacement,” she said. “Enough of the lack of food and water. How long?”

What the election could mean for Gaza

Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza remains a central issue in the Israeli election campaign.

Israeli affairs expert Ahed Farawaneh noted that the race is highly uncertain, with recent polls suggesting that neither the current governing bloc nor the opposition would secure the 61 Knesset seats required to form a government alone.

“The competition has reached its peak, especially with one month left before the election,” Farawaneh told Al Jazeera. “The issue of the war on Gaza and the issue of displacement are at the forefront.”

Topics dominating both Netanyahu’s and Eisenkot’s campaigns include the war in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, U.S.–Israel tensions with Iran, economic concerns and the debate over military service for ultra‑Orthodox Israelis.

However, Farawaneh warned that a Netanyahu‑led government, likely supported by right‑wing and far‑right parties, would probably continue its present approach toward Gaza.

Party leaders in this bloc, including National Security Minister Ben‑Gvir, continue to discuss future military operations and displacement in Gaza, with Ben‑Gvir advocating for the expulsion of the entire Palestinian population.

“The war on Gaza has become a central part of the election campaign,” he said. “There is a race, particularly among the right and far right, over who will implement these plans toward the Gaza Strip.”

An opposition‑led government might be more receptive to international pressure, potentially leading to some policy adjustments concerning Gaza and the West Bank. Yet it would also confront pressure from Israel’s far right.

“There could be some retreat on this issue but not a complete one,” Farawaneh observed.

For Palestinians in Gaza, the decisive question is not who will win the election but whether the emerging government will alter the course of a war that continues to shape every aspect of their lives.

“If Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, this means the continuation of the escalation in the Gaza Strip,” Farawaneh said.

“If an opposition‑led government is formed, there could be some response to international pressure, but it would also face pressure from the far right.”

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