September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) rose by 6 points, or 0.10%, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) gained 15 points, or 0.35%, as prices rallied to two-week highs driven by crop supply concerns.
The rally stems from a reduced Ghana cocoa crop outlook; the Ghana Cocoa Board estimates the 2026/27 harvest at 650,000 metric tons, a 13% decline from 750,000 metric tons harvested last year, following field surveys of pod counts.
Early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop show below-average cherelle formation, signaling a weak outlook for the main harvest beginning in September. Analysts estimate the season’s output at 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from approximately 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26.
Commodity analysts have revised global supply downward. StoneX, in a July 29 note, cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from 149,000 metric tons in April, citing El Niño risks to West African crops. Transgraph Consulting, forecasting on July 23, projected the 2026-2027 surplus will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 metric tons, mainly due to an expected production decline to 4.87 million metric tons from 5.11 million metric tons.
The price support is underpinned by persistent weather concerns. On July 8, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center indicated the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific is likely to rank among the strongest in over 75 years. El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture and stressing cocoa trees, which can lower yields.
On the bearish side, cumulative data from Ivory Coast shows farmers have shipped 2.11 million metric tons of cocoa to ports during the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), representing a 20% increase compared with the same period a year ago.
Rising ICE cocoa inventories continue to weigh on prices; stocks climbed to a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5.
However, Ghana’s COCOBOD projects that 2026/27 production could fall to a range of 450,000–550,000 metric tons from 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025/26, attributing the decline to swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and the likelihood of adverse El Niño-related weather. Despite this, production remains strong for the current season: Ghana’s cocoa board reported 750,000 metric tons harvested for the 2025/26 season—ending this month—up 25.6% from 597,000 metric tons in 2024/25.
Cocoa demand showed mixed results in Q2. The European Cocoa Association reported Q2 grindings fell 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, a sharper decline than the 1.5% year-over-year decrease expected and the lowest Q2 level in six years. In contrast, the National Confectioners Association noted North American grindings unexpectedly rose 7.7% year-over-year to 109,659 metric tons, easing demand fears. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported Q2 grindings increased 25% year-over-year to 224,646 metric tons, well above expectations of a 9% increase.